Energy executives have warned that accessible oil inventories are approaching critically low levels after governments and companies drained stockpiles to offset supply disruptions from the wars in the Middle East and Ukraine.

Speaking at the Energy Intelligence Forum in London, Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser said fewer than 6 billion barrels remain in commercial storage, most of it unavailable for immediate use. More than 1 billion barrels have been released from onshore commercial inventories since the Middle East crisis began. The International Energy Agency is preparing a release of 100 million barrels of crude and diesel to ease pressure on diesel prices. It remains unclear whether that includes oil outstanding from its earlier 400-million-barrel release in March.

Chevron CEO Mike Wirth said depleted buffers have made the market more fragile and raised oil’s price floor. Executives warned that rebuilding inventories while meeting demand could take years. U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve crude holdings are at their lowest since October 1982. Executives also flagged depleted natural gas storage, warning that a harsh winter could trigger severe price spikes in early 2027 if supplies fall further.

Stored oil gives the market time to absorb an interruption without immediately forcing buyers to compete for a smaller supply. That cushion has helped replace barrels lost to war, although repeated withdrawals leave less available when the next shipment is delayed or production stops. Therefore, continued supply problems could carry far greater consequences than earlier disruptions.

The headline inventory total obscures how little can actually reach buyers since some oil must remain in tanks or pipelines for operations, while government requirements restrict withdrawals from emergency reserves. Barrels counted in storage cannot all be treated as barrels available for sale.

The proposed 100-million-barrel release illustrates the limits of intervention. Such volume is roughly equivalent to one day of global demand, though it would supplement ongoing production rather than supply the entire market; it can relieve pressure temporarily without repairing disrupted supply routes.

Restocking presents another challenge, as rebuilding the cushion will require additional supply beyond what consumers are already using. In the event that the fighting subsides, countries and companies seeking to replenish reserves would compete for those barrels, potentially keeping the market tight after the immediate crisis has eased.

A decline in fighting would not necessarily bring a quick return to cheaper fuel. With inventories depleted and needing replenishment, oil that might otherwise ease price pressure would also be needed to rebuild reserves, which could keep commuting and business expenses elevated after the disruptions that caused them begin to ease.

A harsh winter could intensify pressure by driving up heating demand when inventories offer little protection against shortages. Households would face larger bills for an expense they have limited room to cut, leaving less money available elsewhere. Depleted reserves make that risk harder to contain since governments have already drawn heavily on supplies they would normally use to soften another price surge.