With Peace Talks Stalled, Russia Claims New Advances on the Ground in Ukraine

What Happened?

With peace talks between Russia and Ukraine at an impasse, Russian forces claim to have made advances on the ground towards Dnipropetrovsk, which is in Donetsk region. According to Russia’s state media, elements of Russia’s 90^th tank division have reached the border of Dnipropetrovsk, an area Russian ground forces have been trying to reach since the war began in 2022.

Ukrainian forces disputed the Russian claims. A spokesman for the Ukrainian government said, ‘the Russians are constantly spreading false information that they have entered the Dnipropetrovsk region but this information is not true.’

 Why it Matters

Peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine have reached the same place as the combat forces in the field for both nations, which can best be described as stalemate. If true, the Russian claims would represent progress for Russia’s ground forces in the war against Ukraine, but not as much as Moscow would have the rest of the world believe.

Dnipropetrovsk is in Ukraine’s eastern most section, an area Russia has been trying to take control of since the invasion was launched in February of 2022. Despite the area’s proximity to Russia’s own border, Russian forces have still struggled to gain the upper hand in their fight against Ukraine. Russian forces tend to fight better the closer they are to Russian territory, primarily because the logistics component of their armed forces is poorly organized and lacks reach. 

Consequently, the farther away Russian forces get from Russian territory, the less effective they are in the field. That is one reason why Russian forces have made so little headway into Ukraine, with most of their gains on the ground coming very close to Russia’s own landmass. Presently, Russia lacks the logistical capability to extend their reach deeper into Ukraine, in part because of effective Ukrainian resistance but also because of corruption and incompetence on the part of Russia’s own forces.

Dmitri Medvedev, Russia’s former President and current deputy-chair of the Russian National Security Council, said, ‘Anyone who does not want to acknowledge the realities of war in negotiations will receive new realities on the ground.’ Mr. Medvedev’s comments are the most honest to date from a Russian official, admitting they see little value in peace negotiations and prefer to settle things on the battlefield. 

If Russian forces do advance into Dnipropetrovsk, it would be a serious setback for Ukraine and would be even more pressure on their already stretched-thin combat units. 

How it Affects You

The war between Russia and Ukraine is likely to continue for the foreseeable future, despite the hopes by the Trump Administration of bringing hostilities to a quick conclusion. Neither Russia nor Ukraine believe negotiations will result in an advantage for them, meaning they see no choice but to continue fighting in order to achieve their objectives.