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Why Lower Rates Don’t Feel Easier Yet

Policy has eased, but money hasn’t gotten easy.

Over the past several months, the Federal Reserve has begun easing policy. Rates are lower than their peak. Cuts are on the table. On paper, that should mean relief.

Yet for many parts of the market — and the economy — financial conditions still feel tight.

That’s not a contradiction.

It’s how monetary policy actually works.

The Big Idea

Rate cuts don’t instantly loosen financial conditions. They change direction first — conditions follow later, and unevenly.

1. What the Fed Controls — and What It Doesn’t

The Fed controls short-term policy rates. It does not directly control:

• Long-term Treasury yields
• Credit spreads
• Lending standards
• Equity risk appetite

Since late 2025, policy rates have edged lower — but longer-term borrowing costs have remained elevated, and banks have grown more selective with credit.

That gap is why rate cuts can coexist with tight money.

2. Why Financial Conditions Lag Policy Moves

Financial conditions loosen when confidence improves — not just when rates fall.

Right now:

• Banks are still managing rising delinquencies
• Investors are demanding higher risk premiums
• Companies are refinancing cautiously
• Consumers remain payment-sensitive

Until those pressures ease, credit doesn’t flow freely — even with lower policy rates…

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This lag is common historically. The market usually feels the tightening immediately and the easing slowly.

3. The Market Angle

This environment reshapes how assets behave.

Lower rates help valuation math — but only if earnings and cash flow hold up.

That’s why:

• Companies with strong balance sheets continue to lead
• Speculative growth hasn’t broadly rebounded
• Credit-sensitive sectors remain selective
• Defensive positioning still attracts capital

Markets are reacting less to rate cuts and more to financial reality.

Quick Hits

• Rate cuts change direction before they change behavior
• Credit conditions loosen unevenly
• Confidence matters more than policy alone
• Markets price reality faster than headlines

What This Means for You

This is a positioning phase, not a pivot point.

Focus on companies that can operate comfortably without cheap credit.

Be cautious assuming lower rates automatically unlock growth or risk appetite.

Watch credit spreads, lending standards, and refinancing activity — those usually signal real easing before stock leadership broadens.

Expect choppier progress rather than smooth upside while financial conditions catch up.

The takeaway: rate cuts are necessary, but not sufficient. Markets move when money gets easier — not when policy simply points that way.

To your success,

The Shortlysts Team

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