War Between Russia and Ukraine Continues as Trump-Putin Meeting Canceled

What Happened?

A potential meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin in Budapest this week was canceled. According to the White House, a key point of contention was Russia’s refusal to pause combat operations in Ukraine ahead of the potential meeting. Despite numerous attempts at resuming negotiations, the war between Ukraine and Russia is continuing very much as it has for the past three years.

In the past few days, Russia and Ukraine have traded numerous drone strikes, with several Russian drones hitting Kyiv while Ukrainian drones struck a chemical plant in Russia.

Why it Matters

The potential meeting between Mr. Trump and Mr. Putin is another missed opportunity to bring the war between Russia and Ukraine closer to an end. Russia’s refusal to pause combat operations, even temporarily, is a strong indication that Mr. Putin has little interest in peace negotiations or in ending the war anytime soon.

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Mr. Trump had threatened to send U.S. Tomahawk cruise missiles to Ukraine, which would have given the Ukrainian military a newfound capability to hit targets deep in Russian territory with more firepower. The Trump Administration seemed to believe the threat of sending Tomahawks to Ukraine could get Mr. Putin back to the negotiating table, but that effort did not succeed. Not long after Mr. Trump said he would not send Tomahawks to Ukraine, the Budapest meeting fell apart, suggesting Mr. Putin never took that particular threat seriously.  

Russia’s latest offensive in eastern Ukraine has done little to change the battlefield map, which remains largely where it was in 2022 after the initial Russian invasion. Russian forces control about one-fifth of eastern Ukraine, most of which was captured during the early phases of the onslaught. The further Russian ground forces are from Russia, the less effective they appear to be.

The reason is likely the old military adage ‘amateurs study tactics, professionals study logistics.’ Russia has been unable to consistently get supplies to forward areas in Ukraine, in large part due to Ukraine’s effective and innovative use of drones to attack Russian supply lines. As a result, Russian forces have become bogged down, unable to make any headway and stuck in much the same place they were three years ago.

At the same time, Ukrainian forces have been unable to dislodge Russian forces in the easternmost portion of the country, and the situation now resembles a World War I-style stalemate along a vast front, except with thousands of drones terrorizing combatants. 

How it Affects You

Ukraine and Russia have dug in for the long haul, and neither side appears willing to compromise with the other over control of the disputed lands of eastern Ukraine. Russia appears to believe time is on its side, and the Russian public so far has been indifferent to the mass casualties suffered by the Russian military in Ukraine.

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