What Happened?
Yesterday, Ukrainian President Zelenskyy sent an open letter to Russian President Putin proposing a face-to-face meeting between them to discuss how to bring the war to an end. Kremlin spokesman Dmitri Peskov confirmed the letter had been received. ‘Ukraine proposes ending this war through direct engagement between us and you. I am proposing a meeting,’ Zelenskyy wrote.
In response, President Putin said he was ‘certainly prepared and willing to reach an agreement with Ukraine, but compromises needed to be made.’ In the letter, Switzerland and Turkey were suggested as possible locations where a face-to-face meeting between the two leaders could take place.
Why it Matters
This is not the first time Ukrainian President Zelenskyy has proposed an in-person meeting with Russian President Putin, but the content of the letter suggests Ukraine feels they are in a stronger position to negotiate than in the past. One key difference between past communications was the emphasis on the importance of the war in Iran, which both Russia and Ukraine see as something that can work to their advantage…
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Both leaders appear to believe the U.S. is fully focused on the war with Iran, which Russia sees as a chance to persuade the European Union to pressure Ukraine into giving up land. In the letter, President Zelenskyy said, ‘We see that the United States is fully focused on the issue of Iran, and it would be wrong to simply wait until the war in Europe returns to the center of its attention.’ That indicates Ukraine believes Russia would be more likely to agree to direct talks when there would be less interference from the United States.
President Zelenskyy also emphasized Ukraine’s drone strikes inside Russian territory and the high number of Russian soldiers killed in the war, claims that are likely to generate a high level of attention among the Russian population. Russia does not disclose casualty figures, and estimates of how many Russian soldiers have been killed vary wildly from tens of thousands to hundreds of thousands. Most Russian soldiers come from the countryside, and the emphasis on Russian war dead will probably resonate with towns and villages across Russia.
The letter also contained several thinly veiled threats, including a reference to past Russian revolutions. In the letter, President Zelenskyy said, ‘It is a fact of Russian history that you know well: when Russia grows tired, change comes.’ Specifically, the reference here is likely the end of the First World War. Mismanagement of the war by the Czar led to popular anger in Russia and eventually a revolution that concluded with the violent overthrow of the Czar and the creation of the Soviet Union.
How it Affects You
President Putin cast doubt on President Zelenskyy’s legitimacy to hold office, since Mr. Zelenskyy’s term technically expired in 2024, which indicates an in-person meeting may still be unlikely. A key factor will be how the Russian people respond to Mr. Zelenskyy’s letter. If they ignore it, Mr. Putin will be more unlikely to agree to meet in person. But if there is widespread public outcry against the war, Mr. Putin may feel pressured to move more quickly to end the fighting.
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