Ukraine Signals Willingness to Move Towards Peace Plan

What Happened?

This week, Ukrainian President Zelenskyy signaled willingness to move towards a finalized peace plan with Russia, though several key details remain uncertain. The latest proposal, backed by the Trump Administration, borrowed heavily from Russia’s demands to end the war, but after modifying that framework, Ukraine now appears more interested in pressing forward with a new arrangement.

Russia has yet to comment on the changes made to the plan, which originally included several provisions Russia wanted. Including territorial concessions by Ukraine, a limit on the size of Ukraine’s military after the war ends, and a promise not to conduct human rights investigations into alleged Russian war crimes.

Why it Matters

Fighting continued between Russia and Ukraine in the past weeks, and in some locations the combat had even intensified. The ramped-up combat operations may have been ordered by both sides in anticipation of a coming ceasefire in order to get in as many hits as possible against the other side before the fighting stopped. The Trump Administration indicated that a deal was close at hand, but several important details remain unresolved.

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U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio called the remaining details minor, but he did not specify exactly what they were. Without knowing what details remain in question, it is difficult to assess whether or not they are minor. The lack of commentary by Russian officials on the changes made in Geneva leaves the final fate of the proposal in doubt.

Ukrainian soldiers posted to Telegram they had no intention of stopping the fight against Russia, raising questions about whether or not they would accept any deal accepted by Mr. Zelenskyy. If Mr. Zelenskyy accepted a peace deal but Ukraine’s military did not, it’s possible fighting could continue anyway, which would certainly jeopardize the deal and potentially Zelenskyy’s continued role as President of Ukraine.

One Ukrainian delegate who spoke on the condition of anonymity said that the revised plan contained very little of the demands made by Russia, which, if true, could explain why Russia has yet to accept or even comment on the proposal. A flurry of activity in Geneva this week between American, Ukrainian, and Russian representatives made the actual state of things more difficult to determine, but what is certain is that no formal acceptance of a deal by both Ukraine and Russia has been achieved as of Tuesday. 

How it Affects You

The nearly four-year-old war in Ukraine has sapped both Russian and Ukrainian resources, and the renewed interest in at least a ceasefire could well be the result of mutual war fatigue. Any agreement that doesn’t resolve the underlying causes of the war will be unlikely to bring about a lasting peace, and until the details of the latest proposal are made public, the chances for peace will remain uncertain.