U.S. Secretary of State Warns Syria is on the Brink of Civil War

What Happened?

Speaking to a Senate committee this week about Syria, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio warned that ‘It is our assessment that the transitional authority are maybe weeks — not many months — away from potential collapse and a full-scale civil war of epic proportions, basically the country splitting up.’

Mr. Rubio emphasized the importance of supporting the transitional authority, as President Trump did during his recent visit to the Middle East. 

Why it Matters

The potential for Syria to be plunged back into violence has two main causes. First, the collapse of the Asad regime created a power vacuum and left many former combatants with scores to settle and no real governing authority to stop them. Second, the Constitutional Declaration by the head of the transitional authority has angered many different factions in Syria itself.

Many former members of the Asad regime remain unaccounted for, which is important because many of them committed atrocities against the Syrian people. Memories are long in Syria, and those whose loved ones were killed or tortured by the Asad regime now want revenge against the former members of that regime. The transitional authorities' call for tolerance have been ignored or rejected by most Syrians. 

The Constitutional Declaration issued by the transitional authority is deeply problematic. The new Constitution, which is to be in place for at least five years, concentrates all the power of the Syrian government in the hands of the president. Under its provisions, the president would appoint legislators, command the armed forces, decide who serves on courts, and can propose legislation himself.

It is a blueprint for a new dictatorship to replace the old one. Several of Syria’s political factions were excluded from the process behind the declaration. And the leader of the transitional authority, Al-Shara, who would wield almost total power under the new constitution, has given few indications he ever plans to include them. The widespread anger at the terms of the declaration has been used by the transitional authority as an excuse to crackdown on dissidents, again echoing the behavior of the Asad regime.

All of which means Mr. Rubio’s assessment is probably an accurate one, that Syria has a high likelihood of descending into violent civil strife in the near future. 

How it Affects You

The last Syrian civil war unleashed waves of millions of refugees across the Middle East and Europe, in addition to spawning some of the most violent extremist groups ever like ISIS. A new Syrian civil war would probably trigger a new wave of refugees and lead to a resurgence of jihadist groups in the region. Backing Syria’s transitional authority is backing a new dictatorship in Syria, which is contrary to the desires and well-being of the Syrian people.