Representatives of the United States, Russia, and Ukraine have convened in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, for a new round of peace negotiations aimed at ending the nearly five-year war between Russia and Ukraine. The two-day talks, scheduled for November 10–11, represent the first direct trilateral negotiations since February and a renewed diplomatic effort by President Donald Trump to resolve Europe's deadliest conflict since World War II.

The U.S. delegation is led by Steve Witkoff, Trump's special envoy, and Jared Kushner, the president's son-in-law and senior negotiator. Ukraine's delegation is headed by Rustem Umerov, chief of Ukraine's Foreign Intelligence Service, and includes Kyrylo Budanov, head of President Volodymyr Zelenskyy's office, and parliamentary leader Davyd Arakhamia. Russia's delegation is led by Vladimir Medinsky, a senior Kremlin adviser, alongside military intelligence and diplomatic officials.

Although significant disagreements remain, the negotiations could establish a framework for a ceasefire, postwar security arrangements, and eventually a comprehensive peace settlement. European governments are also seeking influence over the negotiations. Representatives from Britain, France, Germany, NATO, and European Union institutions are participating in separate consultations, reflecting concerns that any settlement could fundamentally reshape European security. European officials are not formally participating in the trilateral discussions with Russia…

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According to Reuters, the agenda centers on four major issues: ending active hostilities, establishing security guarantees, resolving territorial disputes, and addressing humanitarian concerns. Ukrainian officials are particularly interested in protecting critical energy infrastructure, expanding prisoner exchanges, reopening Black Sea shipping routes, and obtaining enforceable guarantees against future Russian aggression. Washington hopes to identify areas of compromise that could produce an initial ceasefire and facilitate broader negotiations.

The greatest obstacle remains territory. Russia currently occupies approximately one-fifth of Ukraine and continues demanding control over additional territory in eastern and southern Ukraine. Moscow also opposes Ukrainian membership in NATO and wants limitations on Ukraine's future military capabilities. Kyiv rejects surrendering additional territory and insists that any settlement must preserve Ukrainian sovereignty and provide credible international security guarantees.

These disagreements reveal a fundamental problem: Russia seeks a settlement that restricts Ukraine's future strategic independence, while Ukraine wants guarantees that Russia cannot invade again. Neither government has demonstrated sufficient willingness to compromise on these central questions. Consequently, the conflict has become a prolonged war of attrition, imposing enormous military and economic costs on both countries. Russia faces increasing financial pressures, while Ukraine continues confronting attacks on civilian infrastructure and growing demands for military assistance.

A realistic diplomatic breakthrough would probably emerge incrementally rather than through an immediate comprehensive peace agreement. Limited agreements involving prisoner exchanges, attacks on energy infrastructure, or Black Sea shipping could establish confidence and create opportunities for broader negotiations.

The success of the Abu Dhabi talks will depend less on the willingness of diplomats to meet than on whether Presidents Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelenskyy are prepared to reconsider their negotiating positions. American mediation could help bridge differences, but Washington cannot eliminate the competing national interests driving the conflict.

While the talks represent a potentially important diplomatic opening, the probability of an immediate peace agreement remains low. Their greatest near-term value may be establishing a sustained negotiating process capable of producing limited ceasefires and humanitarian agreements, gradually creating conditions for a more durable settlement.