U.S. President Donald Trump Says Ukraine Can Win the War Against Russia

What Happened?

In a remarkable reversal, U.S. President Donald Trump now says he believes Ukraine can win the war against Russia and retake territory lost to Russian forces. Following a half-hour meeting with Ukrainian President Zelenskyy, President Trump posted a statement on social media saying, ‘I think Ukraine, with the support of the European Union, is in a position to fight and win all of Ukraine back in its original form.’

Kremlin spokesman Dmitri Peskov responded to President Trump’s statements, saying the Alaska summit accomplished next to nothing and anyone who thinks Ukraine can win back territory is mistaken. 

Why it Matters

President Trump had previously stated or implied he did not think Ukraine could win the war against Russia, raising the question of why he changed his mind. The change in position could be a way to politically push back against Russia’s recent drone incursions into the airspace of NATO members Poland and Romania. It’s also possible that U.S. intelligence assessments of the war, not yet made public, have changed in Ukraine’s favor.

Either way, the change in position by the U.S. President could become a rallying cry for Ukrainians, who have long argued they can win the conflict against Russia. The Trump Administration has not yet signaled that there will be any immediate changes to U.S. policy, such as an increase in the amount of aid and weapons flowing to Ukraine. But the shift could still embolden Ukrainians.

Russia’s immediate response illustrates that they do consider the words of President Trump to carry a lot of weight. Mr. Peskov acknowledged that Russia’s economy has faced challenges, some of which can be traced to international sanctions and others to Ukrainian attacks on Russian energy facilities. President Trump’s comment that Russia is a ‘paper tiger’ appeared to sting Russian authorities, who were quick to argue that Russia was more of a bear. 

The front lines of the war between Russia and Ukraine have not moved very much since 2022, and Russia has struggled to make headway against Ukrainian forces despite enjoying numerical superiority. Despite being outnumbered, Ukrainian innovation in the form of drone warfare has enabled them to punch above their weight on the battlefield and prevent Russian forces from advancing. 

Ukrainian innovation and tenaciousness account for some of Russia’s struggles, but another factor has been the incompetence of the Russian military itself. Russian units have struggled to get supplies where they are needed and have faced what is probably a high desertion rate.

How it Affects You

The change in position by the Trump Administration with respect to Ukraine puts the U.S. and Russia on a more confrontational path, though it may also encourage Ukrainians to keep fighting. One fact difficult to dispute is that Russia’s poor performance in combat simply doesn’t match Kremlin propaganda about the war in Ukraine.