U.S. Moves Closer to War with Iran Following Large Military Buildup

What Happened?

The U.S. has moved more air and naval assets into the Persian Gulf region than at any time since the 2003 invasion of Iraq. American military forces in the region include two carrier strike groups in addition to an increasing number of land-based fighter and bomber aircraft.

Stealth fighters have reportedly been moved forward to operating bases in Jordan, the United Arab Emirates, and Saudi Arabia, along with refueling planes and surveillance aircraft.

In addition, new missile defense batteries have been positioned near U.S. bases throughout the Middle East. The military buildup has continued to grow while the U.S. and Iran have been holding diplomatic talks in Geneva concerning Iran’s nuclear program.

Why it Matters

The amount and type of military assets being moved closer to the Persian Gulf region are the kind that would be needed to carry out a series of sustained airstrikes against targets in Iran. Single strike missions can be done with fewer assets.

But because Iran is so large and the potential targets so numerous, in order for a new bombing campaign to have any real long-term effect on Iran it would have to be carried out for weeks and maybe months. 

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By deploying additional missile defense systems to U.S. bases in the Middle East, American military forces are preparing for possible missile attacks by Iran against those installations. Any new airstrikes against Iran would likely result in the Iranian military launching missile strikes against U.S. bases in the region. So, the deployment of missile defense systems would be a pre-requisite for any new attacks against Iran. Iran has launched missiles at U.S. bases in the Middle East before, most recently in June of 2025.

President Trump has yet to say whether he intends to order a new round of military action against Iran, but the movement of so many military assets into position to carry out such action could take on a life of its own.

Senior military commanders will likely advise President Trump that so many assets in place, there may not be a better time to strike Iran. Diplomatic talks in Geneva with Iran have yet to yield any breakthroughs on Iran’s nuclear program, so the positioning of military assets could be a way to pressure Iran into making concessions.

While President Trump has stated he thinks regime change in Iran would be a good thing, it is far from clear whether the current regime in Tehran can be toppled by airstrikes alone.

Crucially, no American ground troops have been added to the Persian Gulf region, indicating that a land invasion is not on the table. That means military action would be limited to air, drone, and missile strikes. To date, no regime has ever been toppled by airstrikes alone.

How it Affects You

If the U.S. does launch a new wave of military action against Iran, a critical question will be whether or not the Iranian uprising against the current regime will resume. Waves of violent protests swept Iran in January 2026, but they appear to have died down. Absent any action of the Iranian people, it is difficult to see how airstrikes alone could bring about regime change in Iran.

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