Following missile attacks on commercial ships transiting through the Strait of Hormuz, the U.S. military launched a fresh wave of attacks on multiple targets in Iran. Iran recently attacked three commercial vessels transiting the strait, including Marshall Islands-flagged M/T Al Rekayyat, Saudi Arabia-flagged M/T Wedyan, and Liberian-flagged M/T Cyprus Prosperity. 

According to U.S. Central Command, U.S. forces struck Iranian air defense systems, command and control networks, coastal radar sites, anti-ship missile capabilities, and more than 60 Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps small boats in and near the strait. To degrade Iran’s ability to continue attacking international commerce flowing through the international trade corridor.

Uncertainty and volatility have become the defining features of the conflict between the United States and Iran. The use of drones by Iranian forces has complicated both the ceasefire and negotiations because drones have given Iran a low-cost and easy way to disrupt shipping and talks with the U.S. Divisions within the Iranian regime now appear likely, with one faction interested in peace with the U.S. but another committed to continuing the conflict…

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Following the most recent attacks on commercial shipping and the U.S. military response, President Trump said that the ceasefire between Iran and the United States was over. Given the number of times in the past two months where hostilities have ended and then suddenly resumed, a similar pattern can be expected this time. There is potential for the pattern of on and off again exchanges of fire between Iran and the United States to become the new normal, which would be bad news for world energy markets due to the increased volatility.

The continued attacks on commercial shipping by Iran also poses a challenge to the credibility of the Trump Administration’s claims that Iran’s military has been defeated and that the U.S. can protect commercial traffic going through the Strait of Hormuz. The fresh attacks by Iran on commercial ships proved both of those claims to be untrue, leaving commercial ships in limbo and facing danger if they choose to transit the Strait of Hormuz. 

Even though the Trump Administration and at least a portion of Iran’s government want to bring the conflict to a close, the opposition in Iran, led by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps, does not. New questions have arisen about the quality of targeting intelligence used by the U.S. military, suggesting the information was outdated and many of the sites hit in the past few months were either abandoned or no longer in use by the Iranian military. That could explain why Iran’s military is still able to carry out attacks.

The war with Iran is not popular in the United States, with two-thirds of Americans disapproving of it. Election year pressure will be on the Trump Administration to find a way to end the conflict before the mid-terms in November, but the pro-war faction in Iran is unlikely to change anytime soon. Further hostilities will be expensive and risky, leaving the Trump Administration with no good options.

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