U.S. Continues Military Buildup in the Persian Gulf

What Happened?

The United States continued a military buildup in the Persian Gulf this week by placing several warships and at least a dozen combat aircraft off the coast of Iran.

Though the buildup thus far is smaller than the one the United States undertook last year before launching air strikes against Iran, the number of combat ships and aircraft is still growing. As part of that buildup, the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group has moved closer to the coast of Iran since last week.

The Trump administration has threatened additional military action against Iran, but U.S. Central Command declined to comment on the recent buildup in the Persian Gulf.

Why it Matters

Large-scale protests and a popular uprising in Iran have been ongoing for the past several weeks, and numerous reports from the international community indicate that thousands of Iranians have been killed by the regime in Tehran.

The violence and unrest currently taking place in Iran represents the largest such outbreak since the current regime was founded in 1979. The presence of a United States carrier strike group off the coast of Iran is likely intended to put additional pressure on the regime in Tehran.

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The Trump Administration, along with Saudi Arabia and Israel, have called for regime change in Iran but has stopped short of undertaking large-scale military action designed to topple the current Iranian regime.

Saudi Arabia lacks the military capability to bring about regime change in Iran, and though Israel does possess the military capacity to topple the regime in Tehran, the focus of the Israeli military remains on the Gaza Strip and southern Lebanon. This means if the United States were to undertake a new round of military action against Iran, American forces would most likely have to go it alone.

Currently, the number of American warships and aircraft within striking distance of Iran is enough to carry out limited strikes but not nearly enough to undertake the kind of large-scale military assault that would be required to topple the current Iranian regime by force. Because the United States launched air strikes against Iran last year, the threat of additional military force carries with it an additional amount of credibility. 

Inside Iran, the situation remains difficult to assess. Because the Iranian regime has cut communications, including internet and telephone access to most Iranian cities and provinces, accurate information about what is going on there is difficult to obtain.

Several international organizations with personnel inside Iran have said they believe thousands, possibly tens of thousands, of Iranians have already been killed by the regime during this uprising. Despite the violence and ongoing uprising, the regime in Tehran still appears to be firmly in control of Iran. 

How it Affects You

For regime change in Iran to have even a chance of leading to positive change, it must come from the Iranian people themselves and not due to external military action. Given the current situation, American military action against Iran would likely do more harm than good by giving the regime the ability to credibly blame the current situation on the United States instead of popular anger against it by the Iranian people. 

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