U.S. China Tensions Rise Following Speech by Secretary of Defense Hegseth

What Happened?

U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth gave a recent speech in which he stated that the Trump Administration would go to war with China if China invaded Taiwan. While giving a speech at a security conference in Singapore, Secretary of Defense Hegseth said ‘China is rehearsing for the real deal. We are not going to sugarcoat it — the threat China poses is real. And it could be imminent.’

The Vice-President of China’s National Defense University, Rear Admiral Hu Gangfend, responded by saying, ‘These actions are nothing more than attempts to provoke trouble, incite division and stir up confrontation to destabilize the Asia-Pacific region.’

Why it Matters

Secretary of Defense Hegseth’s statement that the U.S. will go to war with China if China invades Taiwan is a departure from decades of adherence to a U.S. policy known as strategic ambivalence. Strategic ambivalence means that past administrations have been intentionally vague about how they might respond to a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, leaving China uncertain as to what actions the U.S. might take following such an invasion.

The advantage of strategic ambivalence is that it kept China guessing without being overtly provocative. In theory making it more difficult for them to proceed with any potential planning for a real invasion of Taiwan because they weren’t sure what the U.S. might do. 

But the Trump Administration sees strategic ambivalence as a failure because of China’s continued military growth. The Prime Minister of Australia, along with the U.S. Secretary of Defense, have accused China of a massive military build-up they believe is intended to give China the capability to successfully invade Taiwan. It is true China has undertaken a substantial increase in defense spending and has grown the size of its military in the past decade. It’s also true Beijing has given China’s military the goal of being capable of invading Taiwan by 2027. 

But it is difficult to tell if China is using increased defense spending and a more aggressive military posture to actually prepare for an invasion or to simply intimidate Taiwan into doing China’s bidding. China’s economy has grown along with its technological prowess, fueled by a wave of nationalism cultivated by the current regime in Beijing. These internal factors can explain the increase in China’s defense spending and military posture.

Politically the threat of possessing the military capability to invade Taiwan by 2027 and making that publicly known is likely intended to coerce Taiwan to submit to China’s policy demands. Undoubtedly there are policy makers in Beijing who seek to carry out an invasion of Taiwan because they have publicly said so, but not everyone in China’s government or military agrees.

The Trump Administration’s policy of bluntness towards China over Taiwan is risky, because it could give the hardliners in China an edge over their more moderate political adversaries. Trade wars can lead to actual wars. And the Trump Administration's tariffs on China, alongside the tougher stance on Taiwan, could also convince hardliners in Beijing that America regards China as an enemy, not just as a competitor, and that since war is inevitable, they should continue their military expansion. 

How it Affects You

A war with China would likely be very different from the last two decades of the global war on terrorism. In that war the U.S. fought adversaries who had limited resources and few options to attack targets in America. 

By contrast, China has a sizable military force, conventional and nuclear, along with significant technological capabilities, meaning they could, through cyber war alone, cause significant disruptions to daily life in the United States. Whether the Trump Administration’s blunter approach to deterring China will have the desired effect or backfire remains to be seen.