Yesterday, the United States and Saudi Arabia carried out coordinated airstrikes in Iraq, potentially opening a new phase in the widening war involving Iran and its regional allies. U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) said American and Saudi fighter aircraft attacked logistics facilities and weapons sites used by Iran-aligned armed groups.

Washington described the operation as retaliation for more than 30 drone attacks during the previous 72 hours against American forces and Saudi energy infrastructure. CENTCOM blamed Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps for directing those attacks. Jordanian officials said they had intercepted several Iranian missiles headed towards Salti Air Base, which is home to a contingent of American military personnel.

With the Houthi attacks on Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea and now U.S. and Saudi airstrikes on targets inside Iraq, the war between the U.S. and Iran is now a regional conflict, directly impacting many of Iran’s neighbors in the Middle East. Despite the expansion of the U.S. and Iran conflict into a regional war, none of the combatants have given any indications they are interested in seizing territory from their enemies, which means for now at least the war is being waged from a distance by either air or sea forces…

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CENTCOM indicated it had struck targets across eastern Iraq, while Iraq’s Popular Mobilization Forces, or PMF, said facilities were struck in seven provinces, including Baghdad, Basra, Nineveh, Diyala, Kirkuk, Karbala and Wasit. The PMF reported a preliminary toll of at least 20 fighters killed and 32 wounded, along with damage to bases, vehicles and military equipment. Those casualty figures were supplied by the PMF and had not yet been independently verified. No confirmed civilian casualties were immediately announced.

Iraq’s PMF came into being in 2014, when the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) captured Mosul and threatened to conquer Baghdad. Had they taken Baghdad, Iraq would have fallen and ISIS would have likely gained control of the entire country. Iraq’s senior and most respected cleric, Grand Ayatollah Al-Sistani, issued a fatwa, or religious edict in 2014 instructing all of Iraq’s Shia Muslims to take up arms against ISIS. Iraq is a predominantly Shia country, and thousands answered Sistani’s call. As a result, ISIS was pushed out of Iraq.

Today many western intelligence agencies assess that the PMF has been infiltrated by the Iranians, and that many PMF fighters take orders from Tehran even though officially they work for the government of Iraq. PMF fighters have helped Iran target American bases in the region, which is why CENTCOM chose to target PMF bases in Iraq in retaliation.

Saudi Arabian warplanes struck PMF bases because the PMF had been helping Iran launch drone and missile attacks on Saudi Arabia from Iraqi territory. The Saudi strikes on the PMF have brought Iran and Saudi Arabia a step closer to direct conflict, and the two regional rivals have been preparing for direct war for years.

The Midde East’s newest regional war is defined by volatility and uncertainty; the conflict could drag on for months or it could end suddenly with little warning. Drones make it easy for enemies to attack each other and keep the conflict going, but drones and missiles alone are unlikely to bring victory to any of the combatants.

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