U.S. and Israel Intensify Operations Against Iran as Conflict Widens

What Happened?

Following an opening series of attacks against Iran, U.S. and Israeli military forces have intensified operations, launching hundreds of combat sorties, drones, and cruise missiles.

The strikes have targeted Iranian missile launch sites around Tehran and other major cities across Iran, in addition to locations believed to house Iran’s nuclear program. Iran has retaliated by attacking oil production facilities in Saudi Arabia, civilian and military infrastructure in Israel, as well as U.S. military bases in the Middle East.

The Trump Administration said more U.S. military personnel are on their way to the Middle East, and that combat operations would probably last several weeks if not longer. NATO’s Secretary General also came out in support of the U.S and Israeli attacks on Iran.

Why it Matters

The regional war in the Middle East now directly involves at least a dozen countries, including Iran, Israel, Iraq, Kuwait, Bahrain, Oman, the United Arab Emirates, and Saudi Arabia.

Crucially, thus far, hostilities have been conducted by air and naval forces only, no ground troops from any combatants have attacked targets inside other countries. Iran and Iranian proxies have vowed revenge for the killing of Ayatollah Khamenei, and Hezbollah forces in southern Lebanon have launched rockets at cities in northern Israel. 

NATO’s Secretary General said that Iran’s nuclear and missile launch capabilities must be destroyed, which is a more aggressive tone than NATO struck prior to the onset of hostilities.

Iranian attacks on a British base in Cyprus may have changed attitudes in NATO about the threat Iran’s current regime represented. Britain has also now said the U.S. may use its facilities to conduct operations against Iran, which is a reversal from its pre-war position.

Iran is thought to possess thousands of ballistic missiles scattered at numerous sites across the country. Because many missile launch facilities are hardened, meaning underground or in concrete bunkers, those targets may have to be hit several times before they are rendered inoperative.

The longer distance from Israel to Iran will reduce the number of daily missions the Israeli Air Force can fly because they will spend much more time going to and from targets than they did while bombing Gaza.

Conditions inside Iran are difficult to assess because the regime has again cut off internet access, denying ordinary citizens the ability to easily communicate with the outside world. Iran has at least temporarily closed the Strait of Hormuz, and the restriction of shipping through a key naval chokepoint has already caused a significant spike in oil prices globally.

Several Middle East countries vowed to increase production to make up for the difference, but the extra production volume will take time to reach the market.

How it Affects You

The killing of Supreme Leader Khamenei did not topple the regime in Tehran, and no regime in history has been destroyed from airpower alone. While Iran could be the first, if weeks of air and missile strikes don’t result in regime collapse, calls for ground operations may begin. Indeed, today, the Trump Administration said it cannot rule out ground operations in the future.