Over the weekend, the U.S. and Iran traded another round of attacks, with Iran targeting a commercial ship and several American military installations in the Middle East while the U.S. military struck Iranian radar installations and command and control facilities. The attacks are the latest in an ongoing conflict between the U.S. and Iran that began in February 2026.

Iran’s lead negotiator stated that only Iran can control commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, and the Trump Administration responded with additional strikes and threats to resume full-scale hostilities if Iran did not open the Strait of Hormuz immediately.

The most recent round of hostilities between Iran and the U.S. illustrates how far apart both countries remain when it comes to finding mutually agreeable terms on which to end the war. The Strait of Hormuz has become a central point of contention between the U.S. and Iran, with American negotiators demanding free access for commercial ships and Iranian officials claiming they alone can dictate who may cross the strait and under what conditions…

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Geography is the reason why the U.S. military has not been able to wrest control of the Strait of Hormuz from Iran. If geography is destiny, then Iran has been put in a strong geographical position to exert influence over the waters near its coastline, which includes the Strait of Hormuz. Despite significant damage to the Iranian military from U.S. and Israeli attacks, Iran retains a significant missile and drone capability it can easily use to threaten or attack commercial ships near the Iranian coast.

Oil prices have not surged as much as they have in the early weeks of the U.S. and Iran war, which could indicate that the Middle East is no longer as important as it once was for global oil markets. The Middle East will likely continue to supply a substantial portion of the world’s oil and gas in the future. However, increased productivity from countries like the United States has made the world less susceptible to price shocks from stoppages of production or shipping from the Middle East.

On the diplomatic front, the memorandum of understanding, or MOU, between the U.S. and Iran is so vague it can be interpreted in widely different ways, which is contributing to the impasse in negotiations. Iranian negotiations insist the MOU means one thing, while the U.S. insists it means something completely different. The MOU needs significant revision in order to provide clarity so it can facilitate negotiations instead of stalling them.

The risk of large-scale hostilities resuming between the United States and Iran is high. The Trump Administration has threatened to seize control of islands used by Iran’s military in the Strait of Hormuz, and if they make good on those threats, it would mark a major escalation of the war. Iran would likely view such acts as an invasion and would probably respond by increasing attacks on the American installations and U.S. allies in the Middle East.

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