Iran and the U.S. are reportedly close to agreement on the terms of a new peace deal mediated by Pakistan. A draft agreement reportedly finalized on May 21 outlines an immediate ceasefire, mutual non-aggression commitments, and a framework for follow-up talks on sanctions relief and nuclear limits.

Negotiations which have been ongoing in Islamabad the past week included U.S. envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner along with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, though freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz remains a key point of contention. Pakistan has played a crucial role in the negotiations, which have been led by Pakistan’s new Chief of Staff of the Army.

The peace deal, if finalized, could be an important accomplishment for the U.S., Iran, the Middle East, and Pakistan. A successful deal could reduce the risk of a wider international conflict, stabilize global energy markets, and reopen important trade routes.

It could also revive diplomacy over Iran’s nuclear program and reduce tensions between Iran and Western countries after years of hostility. For Pakistan, the mediation effort represents an opportunity to increase its international influence and demonstrate diplomatic leadership in regional security affairs…

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The details of the new peace deal are not publicly known, but the general themes appear to be familiar ones. Most importantly, Iran and the U.S. are discussing a long-term ceasefire to prevent renewed military attacks. The negotiations also appear to involve Iran’s nuclear program, with the United States demanding limits on uranium enrichment and international oversight.

Reopening the Strait of Hormuz and stabilizing it has become a central goal of the negotiations because disruptions there have damaged global markets and increased energy prices worldwide. Exactly how that would be done under the new peace proposal remains unknown.

The fact that the U.S. and Iran have continued negotiations instead of resuming hostilities indicates that neither side really wants the war to resume. The two-month long conflict offered a clear demonstration of American military superiority over Iran, yet that military superiority has not yet achieved any of America’s long term political goals in the Middle East. The Iranian regime remains in power, and instead of trying to overthrow it the Trump Administration continues to negotiate with Tehran.

For Iran the negotiations offer a chance to buy time for the regime to rebuild its military capabilities, an effort that is already well underway. Iran is already resuming drone production to replace the drones that were used against the U.S. and Israel. The regime in Tehran also continues to crack down on dissent at home, arresting and threatening to arrest tens of thousands of Iranians. For the Iranian people, the war has likely made things worse not better.

The real test of any peace agreement between the U.S. and Iran will not be reaching mutual consensus but sticking to the terms of the deal after it is approved. Both sides will be under political pressure to use military force if they perceive the other side to be in violation, and that could unravel any peace deal rather quickly.

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