U.S. and Iran Exchange Fire in the Strait of Hormuz

What Happened?

The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) claimed to have fired on commercial ships and the U.S. Navy in the Strait of Hormuz. U.S. Central Command claimed that no U.S. Navy ships were hit, and that in return the U.S. had fired on several small Iranian speed boats operating in the Strait of Hormuz. 

In addition to the limited exchanges of fire, the U.S. Navy said it would begin escorting merchant ships through the Strait of Hormuz in defiance of an Iranian blockade. The IRGC said that no ships would be permitted to pass through the strait without first obtaining permission. 

Why it Matters

The limited exchange of fire between American and Iranian naval forces in the Strait of Hormuz leaves the ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran in peril. Controlling the Strait of Hormuz has become the main point of contention between the U.S. and Iran, and that dispute is likely to continue. Despite the continued hostilities, U.S. and Iranian diplomats have apparently continued to communicate through Pakistani intermediaries, though no permanent peace agreement has been reached…

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U.S. Central Command, which oversees American military forces in the Middle East, announced American forces will begin supporting Project Freedom to restore the freedom of navigation for commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. The mission will support merchant vessels seeking to freely transit through the essential international trade corridor.

A quarter of the world’s oil trade at sea and significant volumes of fuel and fertilizer products are transported through the strait. ‘Our support for this defensive mission is essential to regional security and the global economy as we also maintain the naval blockade,’ said U.S. Navy Admiral Bradly Cooper.

The IRGC claimed through social media posts that the U.S. Navy had killed five civilians and fired on privately owned small boats, not IRGC speedboats. IRGC craft often do not carry insignia or markings identifying them as Iranian, which makes them more difficult to detect and provides the IRGC a degree of plausible deniability. The Strait of Hormuz is not a place where very many private, small-sized boats frequently travel, which casts doubts on the IRGC claims. 

After the exchanges of fire and threats by both Iran and the U.S. to resume hostilities, oil prices again rose on fears the war could resume in full. Despite a diplomatic stalemate and limited exchanges of fire, neither side appears eager to resume full-scale warfare. Iran is probably reluctant because they know they are outmatched by the U.S., and the U.S. is hesitant because the cost of the conflict is likely much higher than publicly released estimates suggest.

How it Affects You

Iran’s nuclear program has taken a backseat to the battle to control the Strait of Hormuz, which is problematic for both the U.S. and Iran. Iran has the advantage of geography, and its long coastline near the strait gives Iran the ability to launch attacks quickly and cheaply at passing ships, but launching such attacks could reignite the war.

The U.S. has a vastly more capable military, but it faces an Iranian foe with more numerous and harder to detect smaller ships, which risks making the American Navy look ineffective if they are unable to prevent Iranian attacks on commercial ships.

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