President Trump is heading into this week’s NATO summit in Turkey with a new concern about America’s allies. After years of pressing member countries to increase defense spending, Trump says money is no longer enough, and he now wants loyalty, particularly after several NATO members declined to join the U.S. and Israel in the war against Iran.

NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte has spent much of his tenure trying to keep Trump committed to the 32-member alliance. Last year, members agreed to significantly increase defense spending, while Rutte recently highlighted $1.2 trillion in spending by European allies and Canada since 2017, as well as $300 billion in European orders for military equipment.

Despite that progress, tensions remain high. The Pentagon recently announced plans to reduce some of the forces available to defend NATO members, raising concerns about America’s long-term role in Europe as Russia continues to test the continent’s defenses.

The dispute hones in on a deeper question facing NATO: what does the United States expect in return for providing much of the military strength behind the alliance? Increased defense spending has addressed one of President Trump’s longstanding complaints, but the disagreement over the Iran conflict has shown that larger military budgets do not necessarily translate into support for U.S. foreign policy decisions. That not-so-subtle distinction is likely to have major repercussions when it comes to America’s relationship with its European allies…

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If the Trump administration begins weighing political cooperation alongside defense spending, NATO members will almost certainly be expected to support U.S. military operations and strategic priorities to a much greater degree. Additionally, any reductions in American forces available for Europe would require countries there to assume more responsibility for their own security.

Timing is notable, as Russia continues testing Europe’s defenses and the United States is turning more of its attention toward China. That leaves NATO facing difficult questions about how much responsibility European members should carry for their own security. The answers could determine whether the alliance emerges stronger and more balanced or becomes increasingly divided over America’s role and the obligations of its members.

A smaller U.S. military commitment to Europe would likely reallocate federal spending and defense resources toward priorities with a more direct impact at home. Specifically, towards countering China in the Pacific, strengthening cybersecurity, protecting major shipping routes, and rebuilding weapons stockpiles depleted by years of overseas commitments, including the conflict in Iran and the continued support for Ukraine.

One of the bigger issues brewing is how much European countries can provide for their own security after decades of heavy reliance on American military power. While NATO members have promised to spend more, those commitments will mean little if they fail to strengthen Europe’s defenses and ease the burden on the United States.

While a lot is up in the air at the moment, a stronger Europe could give the United States greater freedom to confront emerging threats without remaining financially tied down by security obligations across the Atlantic.

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