Trump Administration Increases Pressure on Venezuela with Airspace Incursion

What Happened?

U.S. Navy fighter jets flew in Venezuelan airspace roughly one hundred miles north of Maracaibo, which is Venezuela’s second largest city. According to the Associated Press, a pair of U.S. Navy F-18 fighter planes entered Venezuelan airspace and remained there for at least thirty minutes. A U.S. defense official, speaking on condition of anonymity, described the mission as a ‘routine training flight’ designed to demonstrate the aircraft’s operational reach.

The Venezuelan government issued a statement saying the actions of U.S. military aircraft violated international law, but they did not threaten to take any military action themselves.

Why it Matters

In the past several weeks, U.S. military forces have been slowly building up their presence in the southern Caribbean near Venezuela as part of Operation Southern Spear. But the incursion of U.S. fighter planes into Venezuelan airspace marks the first time any American military personnel have directly entered territory belonging to Venezuela. The move is an escalation in the tensions between the United States and Venezuela.

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Venezuela does possess Russian-made anti-aircraft missiles, but whether those systems were in use during yesterday’s flying over is not publicly known. For U.S. military aircraft, getting ‘painted’ or targeted by anti-aircraft radar is considered a hostile act, but that apparently did not happen during yesterday's flyover. If it had, the U.S. military would likely have responded forcefully.

For Venezuelan officials, the flyover was a violation of their airspace but also a demonstration of U.S. power, and their muted response indicated that they are aware Venezuela’s military is no match for that of the United States. With many U.S. planes and ships nearby, simply turning on anti-aircraft radars would be risky for Venezuela, because activating those systems would enable American surveillance platforms to learn their exact location immediately from electronic signals interception. Once those locations are known they can be targeted for elimination.

While the Trump Administration publicly insists regime change is not the goal in Venezuela, it is becoming increasingly obvious that it is, in fact, at least one of the goals of Southern Spear. But the way they are going about achieving that goal more closely mirrors early Russian operations in Crimea in 2014. Rather than relying on overwhelming firepower or a large invasion force, Russia used a combination of threats and shows of force to soften up the objective before sending in a limited number of actual troops to seize the territory.

How it Affects You

President Trump has said ground operations could begin soon, but those statements could themselves be part of an intimidation effort designed to convince Venezuelan President Maduro to relinquish his office voluntarily. Even if Maduro does step aside, there are few indications the U.S. has a plan for what happens next, and it is unclear if Maduro’s departure would be more than a temporary setback for narco-traffickers in the region.

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