Trump Administration Announces Temporary Ceasefire with Iran

What Happened?

On Tuesday, the Trump Administration announced a two week ceasefire with Iran, even though missile strikes from Iran continued to hit Israel Tuesday evening and the Israeli military continued combat operations in southern Lebanon. U.S. President Donald Trump posted on social media that the ceasefire would go into effect provided Iran re-opened the Strait of Hormuz.

Israel said it supported President Trump’s decision, but that the ceasefire did not apply to Israeli operations against Hezbollah. Iran responded with a statement saying that ships could pass safely through the Strait of Hormuz if they coordinated passage with Iran’s military. 

Why it Matters

The temporary ceasefire announcement came just a day after President Trump threatened to ‘end Iran’s entire civilization,’ though he gave no specifics on that threat or explanations as to why he backed off. Re-opening the Strait of Hormuz was the main condition cited for implementing the ceasefire agreement, but critics were quick to point out it was open before the war started. 

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U.S. and Iranian officials both claimed victory, with Farsi language news and social media hailing victory for Iran and many English language social media sites calling it a win for the United States. Exactly what the U.S. won remains unclear, since Iran still has missiles, the same regime is still in power, and the Strait of Hormuz is back to where it was before the war began. Farsi-speaking sites were similarly vague on what Iran supposedly won, since Iran’s armed forces suffered clear losses at the hands of Israel and the U.S. 

Israel vowed to continue its ground campaign against Hezbollah in southern Lebanon, which has turned into a partial invasion of Lebanon. Over half a million Lebanese have fled their homes in southern Lebanon, and Israel has said it intends to destroy most of those structures to prevent them from being used by Hezbollah. Iran also fired several missiles at Israel Tuesday evening, but Israel appears to be focused on Lebanon for the time being.

Several reasons were given for commencing combat against Iran at the beginning of the war, including regime change in Iran, the destruction of Iran’s nuclear program, and the elimination of Iran’s missile capabilities. The Strait of Hormuz was not mentioned at the start of the war, yet its importance is now clear since its re-opening provided the impetus for the temporary ceasefire. The U.S. government did not appear to expect Iran to close the strategic naval waterway and appeared to have no plan for how to re-open it. 

How it Affects You

In the short term, whether the ceasefire will hold depends on the safe passage of commercial ships through the Strait of Hormuz. If they can move safely and regularly through the strait, the chances of the war resuming may be lessened. If ships are attacked by Iran, hostilities could resume quickly. 

In the long term, bringing the war to a close will depend on whether or not each side believes they have achieved enough goals to allow them to stop fighting without losing face on the international stage.

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