Trump Administration Announces Plans for Golden Dome Missile Defense System

What Happened?

This week the Trump Administration announced the U.S. government plans to begin construction of a Golden Dome missile defense system. The current federal budget, which was passed by the U.S. House of Representatives but has yet to be approved by the Senate, contains $25 billion in funding for the new missile defense system.

President Trump said ultimately the cost of the Golden Dome would reach an estimated $175 billion by the time all construction is complete. Adding that ‘The threat of attack by ballistic, hypersonic, and cruise missiles, and other advanced aerial attacks, remains the most catastrophic threat facing the United States.’

Why it Matters

As the war in Ukraine has demonstrated, potential adversaries of the United States such as Russia have expanded the number of missiles in their possession and increased the destructive power of those weapons systems. The success of Israel’s Iron Dome missile defense system against conventional, theater ballistic missiles has given the Trump Administration confidence a similar defensive capability could be built to stop larger, nuclear tipped missiles aimed at the United States.

While technology has changed since President Reagan first proposed a ‘Star Wars’ missile defense system, the physics hasn’t. Tracking and hitting incoming strategic ICBMs (intercontinental ballistic missiles) is difficult for two reasons. First, the larger missiles are also faster and have a much longer flight path from launch to target. That makes targeting them a much more difficult technological challenge than the kind of missiles Iron Dome is used to destroy.

Second, Russia and China are unlikely to ever launch a single nuclear missile at the United States. Instead, their most likely style of attack would involve hundreds of missiles. Missile swarms would almost certainly overwhelm even a capable defense system, because many nuclear missiles also contain MIRVs, multiple independent re-entry vehicles. That means hundreds of missiles would have thousands of warheads, some real and others fake, but the defense system wouldn’t know which was which.

While missile defense is certainly a legitimate national priority for the United States, it remains unclear what if any new technological capabilities the Golden Dome would offer to make it a viable system. Even the ability to shoot down a few dozen nuclear missiles might be enough to stop an attack from North Korea, which makes the new system worth considering. The key will be whether Golden Dome can stop any missiles at all, because the track record for previous tests is mixed. 

How it Affects You

The United States has been vulnerable to strategic missile attack since the 1960s. Removing that threat is a worthwhile goal, but the Golden Dome could also trigger a new arms race with Russia and China, which would end up making America less safe instead of more secure.