President Donald Trump formally invoked a waiver on October 16, delaying sanctions and tariffs required by the recently enacted Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act while his administration studies their economic consequences. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Trump could take up to 60 days to assess how the measures would affect energy prices, the United States, and countries that continue buying Russian energy.

The decision followed a separate agreement under which Russia is expected initially to release more than 300,000 metric tons, about 2.25 million barrels, of diesel into U.S. and international markets, followed by potentially larger shipments. Trump argues that increasing Russian supply could help reduce extraordinarily high diesel prices. U.S. diesel averaged $6.18 a gallon on October 12, according to the Energy Information Administration, as wars and supply disruptions have tightened petroleum markets.

Allowing Russian diesel to be imported directly into the United States is legally controversial. The 2022 Ending Importation of Russian Oil Act prohibits imports of Russian energy products covered by Chapter 27 of the U.S. tariff schedule. Congress provided a mechanism for ending that prohibition, but only after the president certifies, among other things, that Russia has reached an agreement acceptable to Ukraine to withdraw its forces and cease hostilities. No such agreement had been reached before the sanctions pause was announced.

According to the Trump Administration, the current pause would remain in place for another 90 days while Congress has an opportunity to reject certification. Those conditions plainly have not been met. Several Republican and Democratic senators have argued that permitting Russian diesel imports directly into America violates the 2022 statute, though no definitive court ruling has yet resolved the dispute.

Economically, Russian diesel could help, but only marginally. The initial 2.25-million-barrel shipment is less than one day's diesel consumption by the U.S. transportation sector. Even the additional Russian quantities Trump has described represent only several days of American demand. Adding Russian diesel to the world market could free other supplies for U.S. buyers and reduce competition, potentially lowering wholesale prices. But Middle Eastern disruptions remain a much larger influence on fuel costs.

Political reactions to the sanctions pause have been intense. Democrats have accused Trump of giving Vladimir Putin an economic lifeline, while Republicans, including Don Bacon, Thom Tillis and Jerry Moran, have criticized weakening sanctions rather than tightening them. Other Republicans, including Senator John Barrasso, defend Trump on the grounds that lowering energy costs requires difficult compromises.

The sanctions pause is unlikely to deliver much relief for high diesel prices in the U.S., and it would encourage Russia to ramp up attacks on Ukraine. Since the war began in 2022, every time peace talks gained momentum, Russia used it as an opportunity to intensify combat operations against Ukraine. The pattern is clearly discernable and there is no reason to think Russia won’t do the same thing this time. 

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy called the diesel agreement effectively an investment in continuing the war. Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni called it a ‘very risky choice,’ warning that it could provide Moscow revenue and weaken Western sanctions. Britain and Germany have emphasized continuing pressure on Russia. The sanctions pause will likely come at a high political cost for the Trump Administration, with little to show for it.