This week, the war between Russia and Ukraine became a longer-lasting conflict than the First World War. World War I lasted four years, three months, and fourteen days, a time span the Ukraine-Russia war surpassed on Thursday after entering its one thousand five hundred and sixty-ninth day. Diplomatic negotiations have continued to falter, and combat in Ukraine has continued with no end in sight.

Due to a lack of independent observers in Ukraine and deliberate efforts by both sides to conceal their own casualty figures, the true number of people killed and wounded is likely to remain unknown for the remainder of the conflict.

The duration of the war indicates a troubling reality of the modern world, that wars are much easier to start than to end. When the war between Russia and Ukraine began in 2022, Russian leaders indicated they expected a relatively short conflict, which they thought would be concluded in a matter of weeks. Declassified documents have shown that Soviet leaders thought much the same thing about their military campaign in Afghanistan in 1979, which they believed would last no more than six months but ended up taking almost a decade before a humiliating Soviet retreat.

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During the four years of warfare between Ukraine and Russia, Russian forces have made little progress since the opening months of the conflict. During the onset of hostilities in 2022, Russian forces took control of the easternmost portions of Ukraine, equating to about twenty percent of the total land area of that country. Since 2022, Russian forces have made no significant gains in terms of territorial acquisition. Russia has temporarily seized additional land since then, only to have it retaken by Ukrainian forces. 

Ukraine can claim a share of victory simply by surviving. But for Russia, anything less than the surrender of Ukraine’s government would be a historic defeat. Given Russia’s superior size and the amount of blood and treasure committed to the war, without a decisive defeat of Ukrainian forces, the conflict will likely go down as one of the biggest military blunders in Russian history. A clear victory for Russia now appears unlikely because Ukraine has taken Russia’s best shots and survived.

Vietnam and Afghanistan are but two examples from recent history of conflicts that spanned decades. The Russian-Ukrainian war has the potential to grind on that long too because the combatants are geographical neighbors, meaning they can’t get away from each other, and neither is willing to make any serious concessions to end the fighting.

The effects of the war between Russia and Ukraine can be seen far beyond the battlefield. Europe is rearming to a degree not seen since the period before World War I. Drone technology perfected in Ukraine has already spread across the globe, giving nations with smaller military budgets a new capability with which to engage in warfare they might otherwise have been unable to afford. And the potential remains for the conflict to spread to Europe, which would almost certainly drag in the United States.

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