What Happened?
Taiwan’s military this week carried out a series of war games which included test-firing U.S.-supplied High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS) toward the Taiwan Strait. The exercises were part of a larger Taiwanese military effort to prepare for a potential conflict with China.
The drills occurred along Taiwan’s western coast near the city of Taichung, an area considered by military planners as a probable target for any future Chinese amphibious assaults. During the exercise, Taiwanese forces launched 32 HIMARS rockets into waters facing China, marking the first time the system has been fired from Taiwan’s west coast and the first time HIMARS rockets have been launched into the Taiwan Strait itself.
Why it Matters
The military exercise highlighted Taiwan’s growing reliance on mobile, precision-guided weapons and likely exacerbated the continuing tensions between Taipei and Beijing. In the past, whenever the government of Taiwan said or did something Beijing disapproved of, China responded with actions of their own. In this case, China may respond with a show of force by briefly moving naval or air force closer to Taiwan as they have done in the past…
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China considers Taiwan to be Chinese territory, and leaders in Beijing have not ruled out the use of force to achieve reunification. Several Chinese officials dismissed Taiwan’s drills as largely symbolic and characterized them as a political stunt. Chinese officials have repeatedly criticized U.S. arms sales to Taiwan and argue that such weapons increase tensions in the region. The exercise occurred against a stream of frequent Chinese military flights and naval patrols around Taiwan, as well as a series of large-scale Chinese military exercises conducted near the island over the past year.
The U.S. has historically maintained a policy of strategic ambivalence towards Taiwan, meaning past U.S. presidents have not openly said they would support Taiwan in a hypothetical conflict with China while still supplying Taiwan’s military with training and equipment. The Trump administration has taken a more direct and aggressive stance, moving much closer to a policy of promising to directly intervene if war broke out between China and Taiwan.
Though China has numerical superiority over Taiwan in terms of military force, Taiwan could still be a difficult foe for China to subdue. Former Supreme Allied Commander of NATO Admiral James Stavridis called Taiwan ‘an insurgents paradise’ because it contains a combination of rugged terrain and large urban areas that would be difficult for invading forces to control but easy for indigenous fighters to leverage. In addition, the hundred miles of ocean between Taiwan and China is notorious for bad weather and rough seas.
How it Affects You
Taiwan’s latest military exercise served larger political objectives. First, the exercises were a show of defiance against China. Second, by demonstrating that Taiwan can employ advanced military technology, Taiwan sent a message to China that any invasion force would likely suffer heavy casualties. China will likely respond to Taiwan’s exercise, either with military drills of their own or rhetoric… or both.
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