Suspected Cases of Russian Sabotage on the Rise in Europe

What Happened?

European intelligence agencies have reported an increase in Russian-linked sabotage events in Europe since 2022. Last week Martina Rosenberg, the head of Germany’s military counter-intelligence service, warned of a ‘sharp increase in cases of espionage and hybrid measures’ as well. 

The accusations come on the heels of a report from the International Institute of Strategic Studies (IISS) that found a significant increase in the number and types of sabotage incidents across Europe during the past three years. According to the IISS report, the number of suspected Russian sabotage operations in Europe nearly quadrupled between 2023 and 2024, with more than 30 incidents recorded in 2024. 

Why it Matters

Rather than using overt military force against European nations, which would trigger Article Five of the NATO treaty and bring the United States into a new war. Russia appears to be employing a form of hybrid warfare which outsources sabotage operations to criminal organizations rather than armed militias or uniformed soldiers.

One example is a warehouse fire in the United Kingdom in July. According to British authorities, the fire resulted in the conviction of three perpetrators who were paid by the Wagner Group, which is a Russian paramilitary organization similar to Blackwater in the United States. This type of operation can cause physical damage or even fatalities in places where there is no state of war, allowing the instigator to carry out an act of war without actually starting one. 

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Hybrid war is a term that refers to the use of force against an enemy or potential enemy, but the kind of force employed does not necessarily involve military weapons or uniformed personnel. Destroying infrastructure such as roads or bridges, kidnapping or assassinating targets, as well as cyber-attacks to cripple digital capabilities are all examples of hybrid warfare.

Russia has used this style of attack before in a number of locations, including Chechnya, Georgia, Crimea and later on all of Ukraine. Hybrid war can prepare a location for a full-scale military attack by softening it up and creating confusion, or it can be used to keep an enemy off balance by causing trouble away from the front lines of armed conflicts.

In the case of Europe, while NATO looks to Ukraine and its border as likely places where conflict with Russia might break out, Russia uses hybrid warfare to target locations deep within the European continent.

How it Affects You

Because hybrid attacks can occur anywhere, they also include a psychological element by inducing fear among the target population. In democratic societies, popular fear or anger can in turn put pressure on elected officials to do something, which can distract both the population and the officials from preparing for a large-scale war with a major power like Russia. 

By necessity, national defense becomes a matter not just for military forces but also law enforcement and intelligence organizations, because they can apprehend hybrid warfare operatives in ways national militaries cannot.