Sporadic Violence in Gaza Threatens to Undermine the New Ceasefire

What Happened?

Intermittent violence in Gaza has threatened to undermine the current ceasefire arrangement between Hamas and Israel. Hamas has been involved in several killings in the past few days, and Israeli troops opened fire on Hamas affiliates who ventured too close to Israeli forces in Gaza. On its Arabic social media feeds, Hamas says it will not disarm and that it will continue launching attacks against Israel despite the new ceasefire deal. 

Gaza security officials said at least thirty people have been killed since the ceasefire was signed last week. 

Why it Matters

The intermittent violence in Gaza is problematic because if it continues to flare up, it could lead to continued fighting between Hamas and the Israeli Defense Force. Israeli forces fired on one group it said ventured beyond the line of division agreed to in the new ceasefire deal, killing six. Though world leaders have hailed the new peace deal as a permanent end to the war, the situation in Gaza remains fragile.

Part of the terms of the ceasefire includes provisions that Hamas will have no role in governing Gaza after the wars end. Yet already armed Hamas fighters are back on the streets of Gaza, attempting to assert control over portions of the Gaza Strip. Hamas claims it has been attacked by Israeli-backed Palestinian groups, which Israel has denied. That any Palestinian group would openly challenge Hamas shows how far the group’s influence has fallen.

Whether or not the ceasefire will last depends in part on the actions Hamas takes. If Hamas tries to reassert control and achieves it, then Israeli security forces will come under pressure to resume hostilities, as many in Israel’s current government view a Hamas-governed Gaza as an existential threat. The key difference is now that the Israeli hostages have been returned, Israel’s military would see no reason to pull its punches in Gaza.

In the long run, the future of Gaza will depend on how the Palestinian people respond to the war and its aftermath. If most Palestinians reject Hamas and its ideology, it could be the beginning of a new era. But if Palestinians embrace the teachings of Hamas even more and seek revenge against Israel, then the current ceasefire will be just another temporary pause in an age-old conflict.

How it Affects You

The Gaza War has altered the dynamics of the Middle East. Arab support for Hamas is at an all-time low, Iran has been humiliated, and Israel is the clear winner in terms of establishing military superiority over its enemies. But lasting peace has eluded the Middle East for centuries, and declarations of a new golden age for the region are premature.