Saudi Aramco has informed at least two European customers that they will receive no Saudi crude next month, according to a Bloomberg report cited by Reuters. The refiners normally receive guaranteed monthly shipments under long-term contracts, making the cancellation an unusually significant indication of the pressure now facing the world’s largest crude exporter.

The immediate problem is the damage to Saudi Arabia’s East-West Pipeline, the roughly 1,200-kilometer artery connecting oil producing areas in eastern Saudi Arabia with the Red Sea export terminal at Yanbu. Three pumping stations were damaged in recent drone attacks, forcing the pipeline to shut down and disrupting loadings at Yanbu. Aramco reportedly hopes to restart part of the pipeline within days, although restoring full capacity could take about six weeks.

Saudi Arabia’s decision to halt crude oil deliveries to at least two European refiners in October is the latest evidence that the expanding Middle East war is no longer merely threatening global energy supplies, it is physically disrupting them. The shutdown is particularly dangerous because the East West Pipeline had become much more important during the wider regional conflict.

Fighting involving Iran and the United States has severely restricted tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, historically the principal maritime outlet for Persian Gulf oil producers. Saudi Arabia consequently relied heavily on its cross-country pipeline to move crude westward to Yanbu, bypassing Hormuz altogether.

But that alternative is now under pressure as well. Houthi attacks on Saudi energy facilities and shipping, combined with Houthi advances along Yemen’s Red Sea coastline, have increased the risks associated with moving petroleum through the Red Sea and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. By August, crude flows through Bab el-Mandeb had fallen to roughly 1.5 million barrels per day. Tankers avoiding dangerous waters have sometimes been forced onto longer routes, increasing shipping times, insurance expenses, and freight costs.

The consequences are already reaching Europe. Poland’s Orlen, among the refiners affected by disrupted Saudi shipments, has reportedly purchased North Sea crude as a replacement. Such substitutions can keep refineries operating, but they redistribute supplies rather than create additional oil. European buyers competing for North Sea, American, African, and other crude grades can therefore push prices higher elsewhere.

The cumulative effect of the Middle East conflict is increasingly visible in global energy prices. Brent crude recently moved above $100 a barrel and traded above $109 last week as markets reacted to attacks on Saudi infrastructure and fears of further supply losses. On September 18, Brent was around $104 even after prices eased on reports of diplomatic efforts to restrain further attacks.

The Saudi cancellations illustrate a larger transformation of the energy crisis. The Strait of Hormuz, the East-West Pipeline and the Red Sea were supposed to provide alternative pathways that prevented disruption of any single route from crippling Middle Eastern exports. War has now placed pressure on all three. That does not mean the world is running out of oil because producers outside the region have increased output and emergency inventories have provided an important cushion.

But the International Energy Association warns that continued Middle Eastern disruptions combined with declining inventories could require higher prices and reduced consumption to balance the market. The danger is economic as well as military. Every additional attack threatens to make oil scarcer, transportation more expensive, and energy costs higher throughout the global economy.