Russian Oil Tanker Allowed to Reach Cuba by Trump Administration

What Happened?

A Russian oil tanker heading to Cuba will be permitted to dock and offload its cargo, according to the Trump Administration. ‘It’s not going to have an impact,’ President Trump said before adding, ‘Cuba’s finished … whether or not they get a boat of oil.’ The Russian-owned tanker Anatoly Kolodkin departed March 8 from Primorsk, Russia, carrying nearly 730,000 barrels of crude oil.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitri Peskov said the U.S. oil blockade of Cuba ‘was jeopardizing life-support systems and electricity generation.’ Energy experts estimated the Russian oil shipment could provide Cuba with enough fuel to help its power grid continue functioning for a few weeks at most.

Why it Matters

The oil blockade against Cuba has caused severe disruptions to daily life in Cuba, affecting every sector of society and the economy. Power failures have become everyday occurrences, and transportation has become limited, leaving millions without the ability to go to work or accomplish daily activities such as shopping or education. On the international front, the U.S. blockade of Cuba has caused diplomatic friction with Russia, which considers Cuba an ally in the Western Hemisphere.

For the past several months, the Trump Administration has been trying to exert enough political and economic pressure to force Cuba’s current president to resign and his government to be replaced with a new one. What exactly a new government might look like has not been explained, but the goal of the weeks long oil blockade has been to bring about regime change. Thus far, Cuba’s government has rejected calls for regime change.

Internally, the most significant factor that will determine whether or not Cuba’s current regime remains in place is the level of pressure brought to bear by the Cuban people. There have been scattered protests and acts of civil disobedience since the oil blockade began, but no unified, nationwide movement has emerged to demand the President of Cuba step aside.

Popular anger is growing, but because things were so bad economically in Cuba even before the blockade began, many people seemed resigned to accept new disruptions to daily life rather than revolting against them.

President Trump’s statements indicate he believes the current regime in Cuba will not survive the oil blockade, but he has not explained why he thinks that is so. Nor has Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who is a long-time advocate of regime change in Cuba. If Russia sends more oil tankers to Cuba, they could provide the current regime with a lifeline to survive the U.S.-led blockade.

How it Affects You

The exercise of American dominance over Latin America during the current administration is reminiscent of the kind exerted by President Theodore Roosevelt a century ago.

Then as now, the most important factor shaping relations between the U.S. and Latin American countries was raw power, not ideology or economics. If Cuba’s regime does collapse, then American power would appear to be unstoppable in the affairs of Latin America.