Russia to Scale Back Victory Day Parade Due to Threat from Ukraine

What Happened?

Kremin spokesman Dmitri Peskov announced that Russia’s annual Victory Day parade in Moscow would be scaled back this year due to the threat of potential attack from Ukraine. According to Mr. Peskov, ‘the Kyiv regime, which is losing ground on the battlefield every day, has now launched into full-scale terrorist activity, and all measures are being taken to minimize this threat.’

Mykhailo Podoliak, an adviser to Ukrainian President Zelenskyy responded by saying, ‘Nobody is attacking civilians and civilian infrastructure.’ The May ninth Victory Day parade is scheduled to continue next week in Moscow, just with fewer tanks, jets, and Russian troops.

Why it Matters

Victory Day in Russia refers to the triumph of the Soviet Union over Nazi Germany at the end of World War II, which is one of the most important events in Russian history. In Russia, the Second World War is known as the Great Patriotic War, and Russia credits itself with contributing the most to the defeat of Hitler’s Third Reich in 1945. Allied and U.S. contributions are considered secondary in Russian history, whereas in American history, the U.S. is credited with doing the most to defeat Germany.

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Traditionally, Victory Day parades have been as large as possible to demonstrate the military might of Russia to the world. Large numbers of tanks, guns, troops, and jets overhead have been a common sight in Red Square since the end of World War II to showcase Russian power. The scaling back of this year’s parade in Moscow can be interpreted in a couple of different ways. The first is to take Mr. Peskov’s claims at face value that Ukraine is planning an attack on the proceedings. But the second possibility is more intriguing.

Russia has been at war with Ukraine for four years, and all that time, Ukraine possessed the capability to attack public events such as the Victory Day parade but has not done so. Russia’s smaller parade could be an indicator that Russian losses in terms of troops and equipment in Ukraine have been so numerous that less military equipment and personnel are available for the parade. In either case, an imminent Ukrainian attack on Moscow or substantial losses in the field are both signs the war is not going well for Russia.

While Russia retains a potent military force with extensive capabilities, four years of constant warfare have likely taken a toll on the Russian military. Ukraine and Russia both exaggerate each other’s losses, making an accurate count of casualties difficult. That difficulty is by design because neither side wants the other to know the true extent of their losses.

How it Affects You

Ukrainian officials have said they do not intend to attack the Victory Day parade, which is probably true because doing so would likely rally public opinion in Russia against Ukraine. When the realities of war become such that even Moscow’s propaganda machine can no longer hide them, that will not be lost on the Russian people. 

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