Russia Announces Withdrawal from the Intermediate Nuclear Forces Treaty

What Happened?

Russia has declared it will no longer observe a self-imposed moratorium on intermediate ranged nuclear missiles, which had previously been known as the INF, or intermediate nuclear forces, treaty. During his first term in office, President Trump withdrew the United States from the INF treaty, citing alleged violations by Russia.

The Russian Foreign Ministry said the decision was based on U.S. and NATO efforts to develop intermediate range weapons and preparations for their deployment in Europe and other parts of the world. Specifically, Russia’s Foreign Minister cited U.S. plans to deploy Typhoon and Dark Eagle missiles in Germany starting next year.

Why it Matters

The U.S. and Soviet Union signed the INF Treaty in 1988. The INF Treaty banned all of the two nations' nuclear and conventional ground-launched ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and missile launchers with ranges of up to three-thousand-four-hundred miles. Though the U.S. withdrew from the INF Treaty in 2018, Russia maintained, until now, a self-imposed restriction on the deployment of intermediate range missiles.

Intermediate range nuclear missiles are large enough to carry warheads capable of annihilating entire cities, but the launchers are still small enough to be mobile. Intermediate range missiles can be transported by rail or heavy vehicles, and the ability to move them around makes them hard to find and more difficult to counter.

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Smaller, tactical nuclear weapons lack the ability to wipe out entire military installations or cities, and larger strategic nuclear missiles are too big to move from fixed launch sites. Intermediate range missiles have some of the agility of smaller weapons while packing nearly the punch of their larger, intercontinental cousins. That combination makes intermediate range nuclear missiles particularly dangerous.

In the context of Europe, Russia can move mobile, intermediate range nuclear missiles close enough to hit many European cities. Because those weapons systems are mobile, they would likely be more difficult to locate or eliminate during a hypothetical conflict between NATO and Russia. Not knowing where the missiles might be launched from would make it more difficult for anti-missile systems to down those projectiles. 

NATO has made missile defense a top priority, but now Russia has resumed a missile capability it had suspended since 1988. Reciprocity can work with Russia; it worked with the Soviet Union when the Soviets would reciprocate actions taken by the United States to limit the deployment of nuclear weapons. The history of that reciprocity was what laid the foundation for the INF Treaty in the first place.

How it Affects You

The return of intermediate range nuclear missiles in Europe and Asia creates a more dangerous environment where the likelihood of a nuclear conflict has been increased. NATO’s increasing emphasis on missile defense and Russia’s renouncement of the INF Treaty are both signs of rising tensions between Russia and NATO.

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