Russia and Ukraine Peace Talks in Doubt as Putin is a No Show

What Happened?

Delegations from Russia and Ukraine were in Turkey this week for potential peace talks, but thus far no face-to-face meetings have taken place. Despite the presence of negotiators from both countries in Turkey, the delegates remained in different cities as of yesterday.  

Kremlin spokesman Dmitri Peskov said that Russian President Putin would not be attending any talks in Istanbul this week. U.S. President Trump also said he would not be taking part. While Ukrainian President Zelensky was in Turkey, he stuck to his pledge not to take part in any negotiations unless Mr. Putin also participates.  

Why it Matters

The potential peace talks in Turkey could be the first time Russian and Ukrainian delegations have met in person since the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Though the chances of a meeting in Turkey this week that could result in any progress are diminishing, there is at least still a remote chance it could.

According to Mary Ilyshina and Serhiy Mergunov, Russian officials sought to base Thursday’s talks on a document that was under negotiation in 2022 but never agreed upon. That document was rejected by Kyiv because it gave Russia a veto over western military assistance to Ukraine in case of resumed conflict, in addition to barring Ukraine from NATO membership and slashing its military. 

Those conditions were rejected by Ukraine in 2022, a stance that has not changed. Ukrainian President Zelensky did meet with Turkey’s president this week, but with little chance of Russian President Putin taking part in negotiations, Mr. Zelensky may soon depart. 

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio was headed to Turkey Thursday, and he emphasized that diplomacy is the only path to peace for Ukraine and Russia. The problem with the current delegations, especially on the Russian side, is that they have no authority to conduct any actual negotiations. Under the Russian regime Mr. Putin calls all the shots, and lower-level officials like those in Turkey this week are powerless. 

While the political wrangling has gone on, so has the war in Ukraine. Fighting has not stopped in eastern Ukraine, where Russian and Ukrainian forces are still engaged in combat on a daily basis. Despite constant warfare, the front line has not changed much in the past year, with Ukrainian and Russian forces dug in and largely holding the same positions they have since 2023.

How it Affects You

Mr. Putin’s refusal to participate in peace talks in Turkey this week is the clearest signal yet he has no real interest in diplomacy. He could still make a surprise appearance, but that seems unlikely. Though Russian forces have made little progress during the past year, they do still enjoy numerical superiority over Ukraine. Mr. Putin believes time is on his side, and he appears prepared to continue fighting indefinitely.