More than four years after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, both sides are increasingly targeting each other’s economic systems. Long-range drones and missiles have enabled both sides to strike hundreds of miles beyond the battlefield, and during the summer of 2026 the campaign expanded noticeably toward oil facilities, ports, warehouses, logistics centers, and commercial shipping.

Although Moscow and Kyiv generally argue that their targets have military or ‘dual-use’ functions, the distinction between military and civilian economic infrastructure has become increasingly blurred.

Unable to take or retake territory in eastern Ukraine, Russian and Ukrainian military forces are changing tactics. By focusing more of their firepower on distant economic targets, both sides are acknowledging the reality that progress on the battlefield in Ukraine has ground to a halt. The goal of targeting adversary economic systems is to put pressure on ordinary citizens and undermine the ability of each side to fund their military forces. The switch to long range economic targets also highlights the growing reach of drone and missile forces possessed by each side.

Ukraine’s strategy illustrates the transformation. Kyiv has long attacked Russian oil refineries, fuel depots, and other facilities that generate revenue or supply the Russian military. More recently, Ukrainian drones have also struck commercial logistics networks. Since July 18, Ukrainian drones have attacked at least 20 warehouses belonging to Wildberries, Russia’s largest online retailer. One August attack caused a fire covering approximately 100,000 square meters at a Wildberries warehouse east of Moscow. Ukrainian attacks have also reached Russian ports, grain-export facilities and tankers involved in Russia’s oil trade.

Russia has simultaneously widened its campaign against Ukraine’s economic infrastructure. Russian missiles and drones have struck warehouses belonging to major supermarket chains, the Nova Poshta postal and delivery network, industrial businesses, and agricultural facilities. Russia says some logistics centers store drones or dual-use components, claims that cannot always be independently verified. Russian forces have also intensified attacks on the major Ukrainian grain-export ports of Odesa, Chornomorsk, and Pivdennyi, and have attacked commercial vessels operating in the Black Sea.

The objective on both sides increasingly appears to be imposing economic pain in addition to achieving conventional military goals. For Ukraine, damaging refineries can reduce Russian petroleum revenue while creating fuel shortages and forcing Moscow to spend money protecting and repairing infrastructure.

Russia’s budget deficit reached about 2.8 percent of GDP during January-July 2026, substantially above its official full-year target, while Ukrainian attacks have contributed to refinery disruptions and domestic fuel problems. Russia has also reduced its projected 2026 oil output to about 9.88 million barrels per day, its lowest expected level since 200.

Ukraine faces even greater economic vulnerability. The International Monetary Fund expects Ukrainian economic growth of only about 1 to 1.6 percent in 2026, partly because attacks on energy, transportation, and industrial infrastructure continue to restrain production. During the first quarter, Ukraine’s GDP contracted 0.6 percent from a year earlier. Its merchandise trade deficit reached $25.8 billion during the first five months of 2026 as the country imported more energy and reconstruction equipment while attacks constrained exports.

The economic consequences of the war are increasingly being felt on a global scale. Russia and Ukraine are major exporters of grain, while Russia remains one of the world’s most important petroleum producers. Attacks have disrupted Black Sea shipping so badly that Russian grain exporters are shifting cargo toward Baltic ports while Ukraine is diverting shipments toward the Danube. Asian buyers have already purchased at least 500,000 metric tons of replacement wheat from Australia and Argentina, and benchmark U.S. wheat futures have risen roughly 35 percent since late June.

The shift towards economic targets indicates both sides are digging in for the long haul, and that neither Russia nor Ukraine expects the war to come to a conclusion anytime soon.