Romania Becomes Second NATO Country to Report Russian Drone Incursion

What Happened?

Romanian authorities reported an incursion by a Russian unmanned drone over their airspace, making them the second NATO country to track Russian drones flying over their territory. Romania's defense ministry issued a statement saying they detected the Russian drone when two F-16 jets were monitoring the country's border with Ukraine, after ‘Russian air attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure on the Danube.’

The Russian drone was detected 12.4 miles south-west of the village of Chilia Veche, before disappearing from the radar. No injuries, fatalities, or damage were reported by Romanian authorities in connection to the Russian drone incursion.

Why it Matters

Romania’s reported Russian drone incursion comes just after a similar report by Poland. Like Poland, Romania shares a sizeable border with Ukraine, and their proximity to the battlefield increases the chances of incidents like these. While Romanian and Polish authorities have accused the Russian government of intentionally violating their airspace, Russia has insisted the incidents were not intentional. Either way, the incidents have further increased tensions between Europe and Russia.

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In the past several months, there has been a sizeable increase in the number of drone attacks by Russia on Ukraine. In the preceding months, Russia ramped up its production of unmanned aerial vehicles, which has expanded the Russian arsenal of weaponized drones. With more drones available for use, Russia has been able to increase the number of attacks it can carry out against targets in Ukraine. 

Thus far, no specific evidence has been made public proving the Russian drone incursions into Poland and Romania were deliberate. It’s possible they were intentional, and the tactical value of such incursions for Russia would be the opportunity to observe and measure Romanian and Polish responses. As the number of Russian drones being built and employed has gone up, so too has the potential for operational mistakes to be made in their deployment. 

The Trump Administration has threatened additional sanctions on Russia, but thus far has not implemented any of them. European nations have responded more directly by sending additional troops and equipment to help Poland bolster its eastern borders. The movement of new military forces along the easternmost borders of NATO will likely be interpreted as a provocative act by Russia, who may in turn add more of their own troops to the NATO border.

The troop buildup is potentially dangerous because as more NATO and Russian ground forces operate in close proximity, the chances of an incident between those forces increase.

How it Affects You

Whether or not the recent Russian drone incursions were intentional really doesn’t matter, because they have increased tensions with NATO. As both sides continue to build up forces along common borders, the chances of direct conflict between Russia and NATO also keep rising. 

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