Protests in Iran Have Turned into an Uprising Against the Regime in Tehran

What Happened?

Protests in Iran have continued to grow and intensify over the past two weeks to the point where they have now reached the level of an uprising against the regime in Tehran.

Several international sources have reported the number of dead civilians in Iran is in the thousands, while the number of Iranian security forces killed is at least one hundred. The current uprising in Iran is now the largest and deadliest in the past forty years. 

The Trump Administration has called on the regime in Tehran to halt the executions of civilians, but there is no indication those calls have been heeded.

Why it Matters

The difference between protests and an uprising can be found in the goals of each. Protests or demonstrations are organized activities against specific actions or policies of a government with the goal of convincing that government to change those policies.

An uprising does not seek to change the policies of a government, but rather to change the government itself. The attacks on Iranian security forces, government buildings, and mosques throughout Iran suggest that the current situation merits the description of an uprising rather than just popular protests.

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There are two critical questions facing Iran. Will the uprising succeed in toppling the current regime in Tehran, and if it does, what could come next? Each question must be answered separately.

Despite the hopes of many Iranians and people around the world that the regime in Tehran be toppled, there are reasons to believe it may continue to cling to power despite its unpopularity at home and abroad. The rulers of the current regime in Tehran expect popular uprisings from time to time and are prepared to kill as many civilians as necessary to retain their grip on power.

Iran is a theocracy, and its ruling philosophy is known in Farsi as velayat-e-faqih. Though this is often translated as rule of the clerics, it means much more. Under this philosophy, ordinary people are considered to be little more than brutes who must be controlled and ruled by a group of wise and enlightened religious leaders indefinitely.

The current regime does not believe its legitimacy to rule comes from popular consent but rather from self-proclaimed appointment from a divine authority. Because of that, Iran's leaders are unlikely to be troubled by massacring their own people and will use as much force as it takes to stop the uprising from succeeding.

Which means Iran's leaders will be difficult to depose. But if the uprising does succeed in toppling the regime in Tehran, what new type of government might take its place? Some people in Iran are calling for the Supreme Leader to step aside and be replaced by a military ruler, which is a shrewd demand because it may put pressure on the Iranian military to break ranks with the current regime. 

How it Affects You

The current Iranian regime came to power through a popular uprising in 1979, but it is important to remember that uprising lasted nearly a year before the previous regime collapsed. Which means Iran could be in for an extended period of violence and instability for the foreseeable future. 

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