Protests in Iran Escalate as Ruling Regime Cuts Internet Access

What Happened?

Protests in Iran that began in response to spiraling inflation and prices have spread and intensified in the past several days. According to international aid groups, at least thirty Iranians have been killed by regime security forces during the past week. Iran’s ruling regime cut internet access, and as a result connectivity to Iranian websites has become spotty.

Iran has also began halting commercial airline flights to the country and in some locations telephone services appear to have been disrupted. Supreme Leader Khamenei remained defiant and blamed the popular protests on the United States. 

Why it Matters

The successful military action by the United States and Israel against Iran’s nuclear program significantly weakened the Iranian regime’s claims to be powerful and respected. While the damage to the nuclear program did not directly impact Iran’s armed forces, from a political perspective the U.S. and Israeli military successes vastly undercut the Iranian regimes clout with their own citizens. As a result, the Iranian regime has never been weaker than it is right now politically.

While the protests in Iran have spread and intensified, the regime still appears to be retaining its grip on power. As long as the Iranian military and state security forces remain loyal to the ruling regime, then the protests are unlikely to bring about regime change.

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When the Iranian revolution took place in 1979, protests began a year earlier in January 1978. During the intervening year popular protests intensified then diminished several times, which makes it difficult to predict the outcome of the current protests in Iran based on the past.

Mr. Khamenei’s attempts to blame the popular protests in Iran on the United States are unlikely to convince Iranians, who know full well the real reasons they are angry. The scapegoating of the United States is more likely a desperate appeal to U.S. enemies for help, most notably Russia. Russia has supported the Iranian regime with weapons and cash, and they have diplomatic leverage against the U.S. Iran doesn’t. Thus far Moscow has not commented on the protests in Iran.

If the protests continue and the regime cracks down with harsher security measures, the outcome will likely be more Iranians killed and sent to prison, then things will return to the way they were before the protests started. The possibility that popular protests in Iran could lead to regime change is real, but even if the current regime collapses, the question then becomes what happens next for Iran. No one, including most Iranians, appear to have an answer for that question.

How it Affects You

If regime change did occur in Iran, the consequences would be felt across the Middle East. Iran and Iraq are both Shi’ite Muslim majority nations, and if the Iranian regime fell Iraqi Shi’ites would certainly be affected. Iranian proxies like Hezbollah and the Houthi would likely lose access to Iranian cash and weapons, which could reconfigure the balance of power in the Levant. 

There is also the possibility that the next regime in Iran could be even more extreme and repressive than the current one, and the assumption that regime collapse will automatically lead to a better situation for Iran is a dangerous one. 

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