Prisoner Swap and Airstrikes Show Russia and Ukraine Are Getting Used to Being at War

What Happened?

This weekend Russia and Ukraine agreed to a prisoner exchange while at the same time each side continued to launch sizeable drone and missile attacks against the other. After three days of exchanges, Russia and Ukraine both announced they have completed the ‘thousand for thousand’ prisoner swap, the largest so far between the two warring nations.

At the same time, Russia launched the largest drone and missile attack of the war on Kyiv, using over four hundred munitions to strike the Ukrainian capital leaving at least twelve dead. Ukraine responded by launching a substantial number of drones at targets across Russia.

Why it Matters

The largest prisoner swap of the war occurring almost at the same time as the largest airstrikes of the conflict might appear to be contradictory, but they are both part of the same phenomenon. That Russia and Ukraine are getting used to being at war and are settling in for a protracted fight that neither expects to end soon. 

Of the prisoner exchange, Ukrainian President Zelensky said, ‘Today, warriors of our Armed Forces, the National Guard, the State Border Guard Service, and the State Special Transport Service are returning home.’ Russia’s Defense Minister also commented on the prisoner swap, saying, ‘In accordance with the Russian-Ukrainian agreements reached in Istanbul on May 16, the Russian and Ukrainian sides have (over the weekend) carried out the exchange of 1,000 people for 1,000 people.’

The large scale of the drone attack on Kyiv prompted the European Union’s top diplomat Kaja Kallas, to call for ‘the strongest international pressure’ on Russia to ‘stop this war.’ Russian officials claimed more than 700 drones were intercepted within the past 72 hours, nearly 100 of them near Moscow. 

While diplomatic efforts have sputtered, military action from both Russia and Ukraine have increased in the past several weeks. Russia’s call for a security-buffer zone to be established in eastern Ukraine likely means that Russia, at least for now, has shifted its strategic focus from gaining new territory in Ukraine to consolidating the hold it has on land already under Russian control. 

The dueling attacks on Moscow and Kyiv, the capitals of Russia and Ukraine, likely represent attempts to intimidate the civilian populations of each nation. But despite the ongoing drone and missile attacks, neither Russians nor Ukrainians have given any indications they want to give up the fight without achieving their objectives. 

How it Affects You

Poland announced a large-scale mobilization of forces in the eastern portion of that country, placing its armed forces on a high level of alert. As the fighting between Russia and Ukraine has heated back up, the potential for cross border incidents in neighboring Poland has increased due to proximity. An attack on Poland by Russian forces would trigger Article 5 of the NATO charter and bring NATO, along with the United States, into a direct war with Russia.