President Trump Posts that Airspace Above Venezuela is Closed

What Happened?

President Trump posted on social media that airspace above Venezuela should be considered closed, but no specific details or operations by the U.S. military have been announced. A spokesman for Venezuela's government condemned Trump's comments, describing them as a ‘colonialist threat’ against Venezuela’s sovereignty.

Commercial flights to Venezuela have not been suspended, but several online flight trackers showed fewer planes going to or from Venezuela after President Trump’s announcement. President Trump also announced that ground operations against drug trafficking networks in Venezuela would begin soon, although no specific details have been provided by the Pentagon.

Why it Matters

The announcement by President Trump increases the pressure on Venezuela’s President Maduro, who has remained defiant in the face of a growing U.S. military presence in the southern Caribbean. But the announcement also sparked confusion, and several U.S. officials contacted by reporters expressed surprise by the declaration. International flights to Venezuela have not been suspended, but a noticeable drop in air traffic was visible based on the data provided by several online flight trackers.

Closing the airspace above a country the size of Venezuela would require a considerable amount of effort. While the U.S. military does have enough resources to carry out such an endeavor, many more aircraft and ships would have to be put in place in order to conduct a mission of that size. Then there is the question of what would happen to any aircraft that challenged a U.S.-led no-fly zone; would American forces open fire or try to force them away from Venezuela? Any military action against civilian airliners would likely trigger a major international backlash against the U.S.

Most of the narco-trafficking activity in and around Venezuela is conducted by land or sea, not by air, so it is unclear how the Trump Administration’s announcement would impact illicit drug trafficking directly. More likely the announcement was designed to ratchet up the pressure on the Maduro regime. While the Maduro regime is now facing increased pressure from the U.S. military buildup in the southern Caribbean, so far Mr. Maduro appears to be firmly in control and his grip on power does not seem to have been weakened.

The growth in the numbers of U.S. military forces in nearby neighboring countries suggests that assets are being put in place to conduct and sustain at least limited incursions into Venezuela itself. Though the Pentagon has provided no details on what the potential targets might be. Much of illicit drug activity in Venezuela takes place in remote mountainous areas, which would make ground operations difficult to conduct. 

How it Affects You

The growing tensions between the U.S. and Venezuela, along with the continued buildup of American military forces in the Caribbean, suggest some form of military action against Venezuela is becoming more likely. The most likely form such action would take would be limited incursions by small special forces teams or airstrikes against drug trafficking facilities. Current U.S. troop levels are not high enough in the region to support a full-scale invasion of Venezuela.