Poland’s Prime Minister Calls Railway Bombing an Act of Sabotage

What Happened?

An explosion damaged railway lines in Mika, Poland, on Sunday morning, which Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk characterized as a deliberate act of sabotage. The rail lines in question head to and from the border with Ukraine, and because the explosion took place when the tracks were not in use, there were no casualties.

Poland’s Special Services Minister issued a press release saying there was a ‘very good chance the explosion was the work of foreign agents.’ No arrests have yet been made, but police are collecting and reviewing evidence from the scene, including surveillance footage from nearby cameras.

Why it Matters

Poland has experienced an increase in arson and mail bombs in the past two years, which the Polish government believes to be the work of foreign actors. Though Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk did not name Russia directly, it is clear Poland’s government suspects that Russia is indeed behind most or all the recent incidents. Russia has denied any involvement in the rail incident and the mail bombings. 

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Poland is a major transit hub for military weapons and other supplies moving from Europe to Ukraine, and much of that cargo is transported by railway. Rail can move large volumes of material more cheaply than air transport, and Ukraine’s small coastline is currently controlled by Russia, leaving rail as the main way to bring supplies into the country from abroad. While the incident in Mika did not shut down the line in question, it's possible the explosion was just a test run for a larger yet-to-be-launched effort.

Russia is a potential suspect, having means, motive, and opportunity, but they are not the only possibility. Poland’s political landscape has shifted in the past few years, and though there is still a lot of bad blood between Russia and Poland stemming from the Second World War, there are those in Poland who want to stay out of Ukraine. So the possibility of a domestic group being responsible for the rail blast cannot yet be ruled out.

According to the British Broadcasting Corporation, two years ago, more than a dozen people were found guilty of installing secret cameras close to the railway lines in Poland that are used to send weapons and equipment to Ukraine. But given the lack of casualties and small scale of the Mika incident, if it was an intentional act, it appears to have been more of a warning to try to scare Poland into reducing supplies headed to Ukraine.

How it Affects You

Tensions between Russia and Poland have significantly increased since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and given the long history of conflict between Poland and Russia, one or two incidents like the one in Mika could trigger open hostilities between the neighboring countries. That in turn would trigger article five of NATO, bringing the entire alliance into a direct war with Russia.

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