Poland’s Foreign Minister Suggests NATO Impose a No-Fly Zone Over Ukraine

What Happened?

Poland’s Foreign Minister, Radoslaw Sikorski, suggested that NATO impose a no-fly zone over Ukraine during a recent interview with the German news agency Frankfurter Allgemeiner. ‘We as NATO and the E.U. could be capable of doing this, but it is not a decision that Poland can make alone; it can only be made with its allies,’ Mr. Sikorski said during the interview. 

A similar proposal was made during the last year of the Biden Administration, and then President Biden, along with most NATO allies, rejected the proposal as too dangerous because it would risk direct war with Russia. 

Why it Matters

The remarks by Poland’s Foreign Minister came just after several Russian drones crossed Poland’s airspace and were shot down by a combination of NATO and Polish air defense forces. A no-fly zone over Ukraine would be a significant escalation of the conflict, and the suggestion of it is likely meant as a message to Russia to stop sending drones to areas near Poland’s border. 

NATO and U.S. forces have imposed no-fly zones in other locations in the past, including portions of Iraq after the Gulf War and parts of Yugoslavia during the 1990s. What a no-fly zone means is that no aircraft are allowed to operate in that airspace without NATO permission, or they could be shot down by fighter jets. Both of those examples had mixed success, with many critics arguing they were not worth the effort. 

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Ukraine would pose a much more difficult challenge than either Yugoslavia or Iraq because of its size. Because Ukraine is much larger than Iraq or Yugoslavia, the amount of airspace that would have to be monitored and controlled would be enormous. More airspace would require more aircraft to patrol, and the amount needed to manage the airspace over Ukraine would be substantial. 

Aside from the logistics, imposing a no-fly zone over Ukraine would almost certainly put NATO aircraft in direct conflict with Russian aircraft. To enforce a no-fly zone it is often necessary to shoot down aircraft that violate the no-fly orders, which Russian aircraft would very likely do almost immediately. That would put NATO and Russia into direct conflict, something that has been avoided so far.

Actually imposing a no-fly zone would be unlikely because it would strain NATO logistics and risk direct war with Russia. Publicly suggesting a no-fly zone is most likely a political message to Russia to back off operations near NATO's borders. 

How it Affects You

Tensions between Russia and Poland are as high as they’ve been since the end of the Cold War. If Poland were attacked, or attacked Russian forces in self-defense, it could trigger a much larger conflict between Russia and NATO forces. 

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