Inflation in Early 2026: Cooler — But Not Gone

Inflation entering 2026 looks very different than it did a year or two ago.

The sharp, across-the-board price spikes are mostly behind us. Supply chains are steadier. Goods inflation has cooled. And headline readings suggest progress.

But that doesn’t mean inflation is “over.”

It means it’s changed shape.

The Big Idea

Inflation in early 2026 is no longer a broad shock. It’s a selective pressure — easing in some areas while staying stubborn in others.

1. Where Inflation Has Clearly Cooled

Some of the biggest inflation drivers from the past few years are no longer doing the heavy lifting.

Goods prices are far more stable than they were during the post-pandemic surge. Shipping costs are normalized. Inventory levels across many consumer categories are healthier…

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Energy prices have also been less volatile than in prior years, reducing the kind of sudden cost spikes that used to ripple through everything else.

This is why headline inflation readings look calmer — the “easy wins” have already happened.

2. Where Inflation Is Still Hanging On

The stickiness shows up elsewhere.

Services remain the most persistent source of price pressure. Areas tied to labor — healthcare, insurance, housing-related services, and parts of travel — are adjusting much more slowly.

These categories don’t reset overnight because wages, contracts, and operating costs move gradually. Even when demand cools, prices tend to drift sideways rather than fall.

This is why inflation feels uneven: some prices come down, others simply stop rising — and some keep climbing quietly.

3. Why This Version of Inflation Is Tricky

This phase doesn’t announce itself loudly.

There are no sudden spikes or panic headlines. Instead, inflation works in the background by compressing margins, narrowing flexibility, and slowing purchasing power over time.

It’s easier to underestimate because it doesn’t feel urgent — but it still influences spending behavior, corporate pricing decisions, and interest-rate expectations.

Markets tend to struggle more with this kind of inflation because it’s harder to model and slower to resolve.

Quick Hits

• Goods inflation has largely normalized
• Services inflation remains the main pressure point
• Energy volatility is lower than prior years
• Inflation is now uneven, not universal

What This Means for You

This environment rewards awareness more than reaction.

Inflation is no longer something that hits everything at once — it shows up selectively. That makes it easier to miss, but also easier to manage if you know where to look.

Costs tied to labor and services are less likely to reverse quickly, while goods prices are more likely to stay stable. That distinction matters when evaluating spending trends, margins, and long-term assumptions.

The key shift entering 2026 isn’t whether inflation is “high” or “low.” It’s that inflation is now fragmented — and understanding where it lives matters more than watching a single number.

Bottom line: Inflation in early 2026 isn’t screaming for attention — it’s whispering.

And the investors who do best in this phase are the ones who notice where it’s sticking, not just whether it’s trending up or down.

Until next time,

The Shortlysts Team

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