Mexico’s President Sheinbaum says U.S. Military Intervention Not on the Table

What Happened?

Yesterday Mexico’s President Claudia Sheinbaum publicly said that U.S. military intervention in Mexico is not on the table. Following her discussion with U.S. President Donald Trump, President Sheinbaum said in a social media post, ‘We spoke about various topics, including security with respect for our sovereignties, reducing drug trafficking, trade, and investments.’

President Trump issued a statement saying he believed Mexico ‘needs to get its act together,’ a reference to Mexico’s counterdrugs operations. And he also said he was continuing to try to persuade President Sheinbaum to allow U.S. military forces to attack drug cartels located in Mexico.

Why it Matters

Given the increased U.S. military activity in the Caribbean and Venezuela in recent months, President Trump’s threat to use military force against drug cartels in Mexico should be taken seriously. Drug cartels have been engaged in ongoing battles with Mexico’s military forces for many years, with many cartels hiring mercenaries and buying military equipment to use against Mexico’s armed forces.

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According to the New Lines Institute, ‘drug cartels in Mexico now operate more like insurgent groups than purely criminal organizations,’ using improvised explosive devices, drones, and the recruitment of foreign mercenaries. As of May 2024, the New Lines Institute estimated that cartels controlled about one-third of Mexico’s territory. While Mexico’s drug cartels have become increasingly militarized, the claim about territorial control needs to be qualified.

Drug cartels battle each other more often than law enforcement or military forces, so claiming drug cartels control territory is a little misleading because control changes hands so often in some locations nobody is really in control.

In addition, some drug cartels are more focused on controlling their logistics because they make money by moving drugs from one place to another. Other cartels seek to control territory so they can diversify their criminal activities into things like human trafficking and prostitution, not just illegal narcotics. There are places in Mexico where cartels call the shots, but even in those locations some semblance of governance remains.

For the U.S. military, drug cartels are difficult to target because they are so spread out. Large weapon systems like tanks or bombers are of limited use because cartels do not congregate into big bases of operations, and for precisely that reason. Taking out a distribution center or two would do little to curb the flow of illicit drugs to the U.S., and without the cooperation of the Mexican government, American military forces would have difficulty finding and targeting cartel operations inside Mexico.

How it Affects You

Limited drone strikes or ground incursions would do little to stop drug cartels. Some cartels would surely welcome it if American military forces eliminated their competition for them. To systematically attack every major cartel in Mexico, which is what it would take to shut down the illegal drug trade, would require a sustained military presence on the ground, something the Mexican government continues to oppose. 

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