Liberals Win Surprise Victory in Canadian Elections

What Happened?

In a surprise outcome, Prime Minister Mark Carney’s Liberal Party in Canada won the national elections. With some votes still to be counted, it remains unclear whether the liberals will win a minority or majority government, but their victory in this year’s federal elections for Canada is now a certainty. 

At a victory rally in Ottawa, Mr. Carney said ‘No matter where you live, no matter what language you speak, no matter how you voted, I will always do my best to represent everyone who calls Canada home.’ Despite losing the overall vote, Canada’s conservatives did still manage to pick up more seats than they did during the last national elections. 

Why it Matters

The victory by the liberals represents a significant reversal of fortune for them. After the resignation of former Prime Minister, Justin Trudeau, the future for Canada’s liberals in politics looked bleak. Prior to the onset of U.S. tariffs, Canadian conservatives held a clear majority of popular support and expected to win this year’s federal elections in Canada. This is the fifth straight loss in national elections for Canada’s conservatives.

Canada’s liberals won in large part by presenting themselves as the opposition to U.S. President Trump. Canadians widely oppose Mr. Trump’s tariffs and his comments about annexing portions of Canada. Mr. Trump’s tariffs have been so unpopular in Canada its even effected tourism, with fewer Canadian ‘snowbirds’ moving to southern destinations like Florida for the winter than in previous years.

The stated rationale for the tariffs on Canada according to the Trump Administration is to pressure Canadian officials into cracking down on illegal immigrants entering the U.S. from Canada. And to stem the flow of illicit drugs across the U.S. Canadian border. But that’s not how the Trump Administrations policies have been interpreted in Canada. 

Of the Trump Administration’s tariffs and policies towards Canada, Prime Minister Carney said ‘America wants our land, our resources, our water, our country. These are not idle threats. President Trump is trying to break us so America can own us.’ Based on the outcome of the elections, it appears that Canada’s new government has little interest in cooperating with the Trump Administration in the near future.

But Canada sends 80% of its exports to the United States, and as the Bank of Canada recently said, a prolonged trade war could cause a recession in Canada. The heavy reliance on exports to the U.S. for income means Canada will likely have little choice but to seek a new arrangement with the Trump Administration.

How it Affects You

One of the defining features of security for the United States is peaceful relations with its neighbors. While many nations must constantly worry about hostile neighbors, the U.S. does not. The U.S. Canadian border is one of the longest in the world free of potential flash points. Good relations are in the best interests of both the U.S. and Canada, and eventually political differences will have to be worked through.