Lebanon’s President Vows to Disarm Hezbollah and Calls for Ceasefire with Israel

What Happened?

During a virtual meeting with Presidents of the European Council and European Union, Lebanese President Joseph Aoun called for an immediate ceasefire with Israel, while promising to disarm Hezbollah after receiving logistical support for Lebanon’s Army.

Mr. Aoun accused Hezbollah of trying to ‘buy the fall of the Lebanese state’ by following the orders of the Iranian regime in Tehran. 

During the past week, the Israeli Air Force has carried out over five hundred strikes in southern Lebanon, where Hezbollah has several bases of operation. Nearly half a million Lebanese have been displaced from their homes due to the fighting.

Why it Matters

Lebanon is the most likely flash point in the Middle East to ignite into a large-scale conflict because of the war between Israel and the United States and Iran. Hezbollah is believed to have tens of thousands of armed fighters in Lebanon trained and supplied by Iran, and those forces are the main target of the recent Israeli attacks.

The promise by Lebanon’s President to disarm Hezbollah is a much more aggressive posture than Lebanese officials have taken towards the group in the past, and it could lead to open war between Hezbollah and Lebanon. 

Hezbollah, which means ‘party of God’ was founded in 1982 in the aftermath of the Lebanese civil war. The group’s primary purpose is to serve as a proxy for the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps and to prevent another Israeli invasion of southern Lebanon.

Members of Hezbollah are highly fanatical, well-armed and resourced by Iran. Within Lebanon, Hezbollah is often referred to as a state within the state, because it wields the same kind of authority over certain areas that the Lebanese government does for the rest of the country.

In the past, Lebanon has been unwilling to openly challenge Hezbollah due to its strong support from Iran. But with the current war on Iran by Israel and the United States, Lebanon’s government has taken a tougher stance, most likely because they believe Iran is distracted and will be at least temporarily unable to give their usual level of support to Hezbollah.

Lebanese officials see Hezbollah as vulnerable, which has led to promises to disarm the group. Hezbollah has never enjoyed widespread popularity in Lebanon, and many Lebanese would like to see the group gone from their country.

The European Union did not give any indications they were prepared to grant Lebanon’s request for logistical support, but they did not reject the idea either. Most likely, the issue will continue to be discussed, but the window of opportunity for Lebanon to take decisive action against Hezbollah won’t stay open indefinitely.

The call for help for Lebanon’s Army by Mr. Aoun suggests that even without Iranian support for Hezbollah, he still isn’t confident his forces can defeat the group.

How it Affects You

Lebanon’s government has, in effect, given Hezbollah an ultimatum, and at the moment, neither side appears willing to back down. Hezbollah is unlikely to relinquish its arms willingly, which means Lebanon will have to use force. If they do, the result will likely be civil war within Lebanon.