Large Political Rallies in Warsaw Foreshadow Poland’s Presidential Runoff Elections

What Happened?

Tens of thousands of citizens in Poland flocked to the capital of Warsaw to take part in political rallies to support the two leading candidates for the highest office. Supporters of liberal candidate Rafał Trzaskowski marched opposite from supporters of conservative Karol Nawrocki in peaceful demonstrations over the weekend.

Poland’s presidential runoff elections are slated for June 1^st and are expected to generate high voter turnout. 

Why it Matters

The war in Ukraine has pushed huge numbers of refugees into Poland, and the threat of a potential Russian attack along with an influx of foreigners has placed considerable stress on Poland and its political system. The outcome of Poland’s presidential election will determine how Poland will respond to these challenges going forward.

According to the Associated Press, during a speech to a huge crowd Mr. Trzaskowski laid out his vision for a Poland that is inclusive. And vowed to work to help develop Polish industry as the nation continues an economic transformation into a regional economic and military power. At the same time his opponent Mr. Nawrocki presented himself as a traditional conservative ‘who understands the hardships of everyday life.’

Poland is now NATO’s biggest defense spender at 4.7 percent of GDP, has the EU's largest army, and is spending billions of euros on jets, rockets, tanks, artillery and more. In addition, Poland’s government has announced plans to train every adult male for war. The primary driver of the increased emphasis on military planning and defense spending is the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

For more than two centuries, Poland was a vassal state to Moscow, and the bitter memories of that legacy have left many in Poland wary at the prospect of being subjected to Russian rule once more. While there is general agreement in Poland on the potential threat posed by Russia, there are sharp divisions over how best to manage the country’s domestic affairs.

Left leaning supporters of Mr. Trzaskowki favor a more inclusive approach which would be more welcoming to new immigrants and refugees. Conservatives, including Mr. Nawrocki, believe that a more stringent approach to immigration is in Poland’s best interest. 

While the President of Poland is largely a figurehead, they can veto legislation passed by the national legislature and overturning a presidential veto requires a supermajority. Given the current political divisions, it’s unlikely any major faction in Poland could override presidential vetoes making the outcome of the presidential runoff consequential for the future of Poland. 

How it Affects You

Poland is a critical member of NATO because of its borders with Ukraine and Belarus, a key Russian ally. Much of the military aid sent to Ukraine by the EU goes through Poland, and should the new President of Poland want to stop that, it could have a significant effect on the war in Ukraine.