Yesterday, the Israeli Air Force launched an unspecified number of airstrikes against targets in Iran, the first such attacks since April. The attacks by Israel were in retaliation for missile attacks by Iran on northern Israel the day before. President Trump urged both Israel and Iran to refrain from further attacks and to resume negotiations.

Iran stated it had launched two waves of missiles at an airbase in northern Israel, and the Israeli Defense Force said all Iranian missiles had been intercepted. Iran also stated it was halting further attacks against Israel but warned there could be more if Israel continues attacking Hezbollah in Lebanon. 

The latest wave of attacks from Israel and Iran illustrate the fragility of the ceasefire between them. There have been at least two rounds of attacks between the U.S. and Iran prior to the latest exchange of fire between Israel and Iran, leaving the overall situation in limbo. Peace negotiations have failed to produce an end to the fighting, though the Trump Administration has called for additional talks…

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Last week, reports surfaced that Iran’s President had resigned, though he still appears to be in office as of Monday. Those reports raised an important question, which is who is really in charge of Iran’s government. The new Supreme Leader claims to be in charge, though his public appearances have been limited for security reasons. Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) appears to have ordered the attack on northern Israel yesterday, and they appear to have done so without consulting the Iranian government.

If the IRGC is carrying out attacks against Israel without even notifying Iran’s government, that suggests they are operating independently. One reason could be that Iran delegated authority to more junior commanders in the event that more senior officers were killed.

The probability is high many senior officers have been killed, and the result is an IRGC that itself appears to be somewhat fractured and being led by local commanders. That would account for the sporadic attacks against Israel and the U.S. because local IRGC commanders may be calling the shots on their own instead of being part of a larger, more integrated strategy.

The recent escalation followed Israeli military operations against Hezbollah targets in Lebanon and amid broader regional tensions involving Iranian-backed groups. Iran portrayed its missile attacks as retaliation for Israeli actions in Lebanon, while Israel argued that it was acting in self-defense against direct Iranian aggression.

The exchange quickly threatened to draw in other actors, including the Iranian-backed Houthi movement in Yemen, which launched missiles toward Israel and threatened maritime traffic in the Red Sea.

While the damage inflicted on the IRGC by the U.S. and Israeli air strikes is likely significant, the more fractured nature of IRGC operations is making it more difficult to bring a lasting end to the conflict. Iranian negotiators appeared surprised by the recent strikes on Israel, suggesting they may not have known they were underway. 

Fractured leadership in Iran will likely make ending the conflict more difficult because instead of being led by a single governing authority, Iran may now have several, and each has their own ideas about what would be required to end the war. 

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