Israel Strikes Iran’s Largest Petrochemical Refinery in Asaluyeh

What Happened?

Warplanes and drones from the Israeli Air Force attacked Iran’s largest petrochemical refinery in Asulayeh on Monday. A spokesman for Israel said the plant had been at least temporarily put out of commission, but an Iranian spokesman claimed the damage was minor and had been contained. Israel also claims to have attacked at least one other Iranian petrochemical plant in the past two days.

The attacks by Israel on Iranian petrochemical facilities come after U.S. President Donald Trump threatened to attack Iranian infrastructure if Iran did not reopen the Strait of Hormuz immediately. Iran responded to President Trump with threats of their own, including a threat to target large data centers in the Middle East.

Why it Matters

The switch to targeting economic infrastructure suggests American and Israeli officials no longer believe the current Iranian regime can be destroyed by eliminating its military capabilities. For the past month, American and Israeli forces have hit thousands of targets in Iran, but the switch to infrastructure targeting means an entirely new set of targets, which will require different types of weapons to eliminate. It also suggests the war will continue for longer than originally planned.

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Intelligence estimates vary, but Iran is still believed to possess a significant arsenal of missiles and drones, meaning the military campaign of the past month did not destroy Iran’s capacity to wage war. Iran continues to fire missiles and drones at U.S. installations across the Middle East, and Iranian forces continue targeting their neighbors’ oil infrastructure. Satellite imagery and open-source analysis indicate the frequency of Iranian missile attacks has decreased, but they remain a serious threat to the region.

Military targets such as underground bunkers require specialized ordinance to destroy, but infrastructure such as bridges and refineries require different kinds of weapons to neutralize. There are thousands of potential infrastructure targets in Iran, and the sheer number would require several more weeks of airstrikes to destroy, even if infrastructure targets were the main focus of the campaign, which, as of this week, they are not. 

The goal of destroying infrastructure would be to cripple Iran’s economy, which in turn would take away the current Iranian regime’s ability to finance the war against Israel and the U.S. But other conflicts have demonstrated that destroying infrastructure such as bridges, power grids, and transportation systems harms the civilian population much more than a campaign against military assets. Destroyed infrastructure can take years to rebuild, meaning the impact would likely far outlast the war itself. 

How it Affects You

The U.S. and Israel have stated they seek regime change in Iran through a popular uprising. Widespread hatred of the current regime in Tehran is likely among the Iranian civilian population, but destroying Iran’s infrastructure could turn popular opinion against the U.S. and Israel as well. A systematic campaign by Israel and the U.S. to destroy Iran’s infrastructure would represent a significant expansion of the war in terms of its costs, duration, and impact on Iran. 

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