Israel’s first national election since the Hamas attacks of October 7, 2023, has produced an uncertain result, setting up what could become weeks of negotiations over who will govern the country. The election amounted in large part to a referendum on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s leadership during the most traumatic period in recent Israeli history.

With roughly half of the votes counted Wednesday morning, Netanyahu’s Likud party was leading with about 20.6 percent of the vote, compared with approximately 16.8 percent for Yashar, the centrist party led by former military chief Gadi Eisenkot.

Early projections suggested Netanyahu’s right-wing and religious allies could win approximately 55 seats, Eisenkot and parties broadly opposed to Netanyahu around 50, and Arab parties approximately 15. No party appeared to have secured the 61 seats required for a majority in the 120-seat Knesset.

The defining issue for Israel’s national election was the attacks of October 7, 2023. Hamas-led attackers killed approximately 1,200 people and took 251 hostages in 2023, creating what many Israelis regard as the country's greatest security failure in generations…

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Netanyahu’s opponents argued that the prime minister should be held politically accountable for failing to prevent the attack and criticized his resistance to demands for a fully independent inquiry. Netanyahu instead emphasized Israel’s subsequent military campaigns against Hamas and other regional adversaries and portrayed himself as the experienced leader needed to maintain Israeli security.

For voters the election appeared to be less of a referendum on whether Israel should have responded militarily than on Netanyahu’s leadership of that response. Much of the Israeli Jewish electorate continues to support an aggressive security posture. Eisenkot, a former Israel Defense Forces chief who joined Netanyahu’s emergency war cabinet after October 7 before resigning in 2024, offered voters an alternative that remained hawkish on security while arguing for greater accountability and political change.

Israel’s political system helps explain why the election winner may remain unclear even after all the votes are counted. Israelis vote for political parties rather than directly electing a prime minister. Parties receiving at least 3.25 percent of the national vote receive seats in the Knesset roughly in proportion to their support. Because no single party has ever captured an outright parliamentary majority, governments normally consist of coalitions involving several parties. This legal mechanism forces political parties to work together to form a government.

After the official results are published, President Isaac Herzog will consult the parties and ask the Knesset member he believes has the best chance of assembling a government to try to do so. That is frequently the leader of the largest party. A prospective prime minister normally receives 28 days to assemble a coalition and can receive a 14-day extension. If that effort fails, another candidate may get the opportunity. Continued failure could ultimately trigger another election.

The preliminary outcome reveals a country deeply divided. Netanyahu appears weakened but far from defeated, while his opponents appear unable so far to translate dissatisfaction with his government into an obvious governing majority. Arab parties could consequently become pivotal, although cooperation with them remains politically difficult for several Jewish opposition parties. The ultimate significance of the election may be determined not at the ballot box but through coalition bargaining in the coming weeks.