Israel and Iran Enter Tentative Cease Fire but Accuse Each Other of Violations

What Happened?

Israel and Iran have agreed to a tentative ceasefire although both sides have accused each other of violating the agreement. Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz accused Iran of firing a round of missiles at Israel and said he ordered the military to ‘respond forcefully to Iran’s violation of the ceasefire.’ Iran also accused Israel of launching three waves of attacks shortly after the truce had gone into effect.

President Trump accused both Israel and Iran of violating the cease fire and urged both sides to refrain from further hostilities. 

Why it Matters

The tentative cease fire, it if holds, could bring an end to the immediate hostilities between Israel and Iran, which have been ongoing for the past twelve days. Although a cease fire could be an important step to de-escalate the situation, nearly all the underlying issues which led to the outbreak of war in the first place will likely remain.

Whether Iran’s nuclear program has been destroyed or only damaged remains to be seen. Bomb damage assessment can take days even when the targets are plainly visible, and in the case of Fordow, the target is underground so imagery from satellites or aircraft will be unavailable. Even the Iranians are probably still conducting damage assessments on site. The Trump Administration has said Fordow was completely destroyed, and the Iranians have said it was barely damaged, but the truth is likely somewhere in between.

A cease fire agreement and then continued hostilities may appear to be deliberate deception on the part of Iran, but there could be other explanations. An agreement followed by continued missile launches against Israel raises the question of who is in control of the Iranian armed forces.

It’s possible the Iranian government agreed to the cease fire, but Iran’s military commanders did not, which would represent a split in the chain of command for Iran. It’s also possible due to communications disruptions from Israeli attacks some Iranian commanders simply weren’t informed of the cease fire before they began firing their next wave of pre-planned attacks.

Iran’s attack on the U.S. air base in Qatar appears to have caused no casualties and little damage, but the advance notice President Trump claims to have received is also interesting. Iran is not in the habit of announcing their attacks in advance, which again raises the possibility of some kind of split in Iran’s government. It’s possible one faction of Iran’s government wanted to attack Al-Udeid, but another faction wanted to bring hostilities to a close, so they warned the Trump administration of the impending attack.

How it Affects You

A lasting cease fire could help move the Middle East away from another destructive regional war and towards at least a fragile peace. U.S. forces are likely to remain on their highest level of alert for some time in case Iran launches additional attacks.