Iranian Nuclear Facilities Likely Suffered Extensive Damage from U.S. Airstrikes

What Happened?

Following the U.S. airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities last weekend, the race has been on to determine the extent of the damage to Iran’s facilities and its nuclear program. While President Trump has said Iran’s nuclear sites were ‘completely obliterated’, U.S. and Israeli military officials have yet to say they can confirm that assessment.

Israeli officials did say they had intercepted Iranian communications which indicate Iran’s own field commanders have been intentionally downplaying the extent of the damage in order to mollify Iran’s political leaders.

Why it Matters

The U.S. struck three Iranian nuclear facilities. Natanz and Isfahan can be seen through aerial and satellite imagery, and the available evidence suggests those sites were damaged extensively. Fordow is an underground facility, so there is no way for satellites or aircraft to see the inside of it. That means the only way to conclusively assess the damage is to actually go in or send in autonomous robotic vehicles to examine the site.

However, there is some visual evidence available at Fordow. The gray dust covering much of the site after the airstrikes could be concrete particles which were blown back out of the underground facility by the massive ordinance penetrators used by the U.S. Air Force. That would suggest the underground facility suffered serious damage from the munitions. Even if the main underground structure remained intact and only the access tunnels were destroyed, the facility would be sealed underground.

The larger question is, will the damage to Iran’s nuclear facilities be sufficient to end Iran’s nuclear program? Iran has long adopted a dispersion strategy to spread out its nuclear program across many different sites, so there could still be enriched uranium, and the equipment needed to construct nuclear weapons elsewhere in Iran. The killing of top Iranian scientists and commanders by Israeli forces will probably do as much to degrade Iran’s nuclear program as the U.S. airstrikes. Rebuilding facilities is much easier than replacing knowledgeable personnel.

But one thing the U.S. airstrike unquestionably achieved is making Iran pay a price for even trying to build nuclear weapons. Previously that had not been the case, with international action against Iran confined to economic sanctions and other non-military activity. The question that remains is how will Iran respond?

Iran and the U.S. have a long history of hostilities since the 1979 revolution that brought the current Iranian regime to power. Most recently Iran killed and maimed hundreds of U.S. military personnel in Iraq following the U.S. invasion in 2003. If the current Iranian regime remains in power, it is likely they will at a minimum seek revenge against both the U.S. and Israel, whether with nuclear or conventional weapons.

How it Affects You

The worldwide potential for terrorist attacks is a credible threat, and an elevated threat level is likely to continue for some time. Iran has several different ways it could attack Americans in the Middle East and elsewhere, so that threat is unlikely to subside anytime soon.